# o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $100M leads at 77%, runner-up 46% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.574Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 77%
- Runner-up: $300M at 46%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 77¢ | +1pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xd638c61e552201ba3badd247a361aaa4a3440f15403483bff1e68eb0d6cdc7e3 |
| $300M | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xf000e6e58568fc7670e15d1baa7dabe7052b52886472e7825330a908beea1de2 |
| $200M | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xf3400bee676ed90a83bff9b6bfa88bcf0abca0048792f047726146a7fd3611e2 |
| $500M | 43¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x00168497e9fb3e59718b7bbe884ac9fd31ed3376b0e6f17fc04f4714d4e91210 |
| $400M | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-400m-polymarket-0xfb9a43b24982147467eabb56395807fa3c4e497a20d03867f6b5eb023abed8aa |
| $700M | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0x1d0f4f9e01bad72b480170ba756d29fabaa7011fccf1854076e6ebdc7e14be0f |
| $1B | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xeeb63b6f2661223796e73f7a2d50d25c9a37de7d120e37ba1a299312b22adfea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $300M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 65 | 12 | 18 |
| 2026-04-24 | 78 | 11 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | 77 | — | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 43 | 43 |
| 2026-05-07 | 77 | 43 | 45 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 44 | 46 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $300M +10pp 34→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $300M −9pp 43→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $300M −6pp 49→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $200M +5pp 38→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $500M −4pp 41→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts that o1, an AI model, will have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $100 million one day after its public launch. The 76% probability reflects trader confidence that this valuation threshold will be cleared relatively quickly. The outcome depends primarily on o1's initial market reception, including adoption metrics and early performance benchmarks compared to competitors. A secondary factor is the broader AI market momentum—valuations for comparable AI projects launched in similar market conditions would provide context. Resolution occurs immediately after o1's launch date is announced and one full day has passed, making this a near-term, binary event. The contract's high probability suggests traders expect strong initial demand, though the spread between this outcome (76%) and higher valuation thresholds like $500M (44%) indicates meaningful uncertainty about how aggressive the valuation will be.

### Key factors

- o1's demonstrated capabilities relative to existing models will directly influence early valuation; performance on benchmarks, speed, and competitive positioning are observable within 24 hours
- Initial user adoption and API usage rates during the first day post-launch are concrete metrics that typically correlate with early FDV in comparable launches
- Market sentiment for AI infrastructure and reasoning models at launch time will affect how aggressively early investors and traders value the token or equity
- Comparisons to recent AI model launches (valuation multiples of revenue, user metrics, or stated funding rounds) provide reference points for assessing $100M credibility
- The announced funding round size or pre-launch valuation guidance, if released, would reduce estimation variance and could shift probability materially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.