# Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026

> Jon Ossoff leads at 84%, runner-up 34% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/obamaendorse
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.143Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Jon Ossoff at 84%
- Runner-up: Dan Osborn at 34%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-jon-ossoff-in-georgia-se-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-joss |
| Dan Osborn | 34¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-dan-osborn-in-nebraska-s-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-dosb |
| Roy Cooper | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-roy-cooper-in-north-caro-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-rcoo |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-keisha-lance-bottoms-in-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-kbot |
| Karen Bass | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-karen-bass-in-los-angele-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-kbas |
| Mary Peltola | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-mary-peltola-in-alaska-s-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-mpel |
| Sherrod Brown | 3¢ | −27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-endorse-sherrod-brown-in-ohio-se-kalshi-kxobamaendorse-26nov03-sbro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jon Ossoff | Dan Osborn | Roy Cooper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 75 | 60 | 75 |
| 2026-05-20 | 83 | 61 | 82 |
| 2026-05-22 | — | 43 | 28 |
| 2026-05-28 | 84 | 32 | 5 |
| 2026-05-29 | 83 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Keisha Lance Bottoms −64pp 68→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Roy Cooper −54pp 82→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Sherrod Brown −53pp 82→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Karen Bass −44pp 67→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Mary Peltola −41pp 67→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the probability that former President Barack Obama will publicly endorse Graham Platner in Maine's 2026 Senate race before November 3. At 76%, the market reflects strong expectation of an endorsement, placing this outcome ahead of several other potential Obama endorsements in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races. The probability is driven by Platner's political profile, the competitiveness of Maine's Senate race, and Obama's historical pattern of endorsing candidates in key contests. The main resolution catalyst is the general election campaign period and any public statements from Obama or his representatives between now and early November 2026. Factors that could shift the probability include changes in the race's competitiveness, shifts in Democratic party strategy, or statements from Obama regarding his endorsement plans for 2026.

### Key factors

- Obama's historical endorsement patterns in Maine politics and competitive Senate races
- Platner's status as a declared candidate and perceived viability heading into the final stretch of the campaign
- Competitive dynamics in Maine's Senate race and whether it becomes a targeted priority for national Democratic figures
- Public statements or signals from Obama's team about planned 2026 endorsements before the November deadline
- Relative endorsement volume across the related contracts (Dan Osborn at 61¢, Jon Ossoff at 76¢) suggesting market differentiation based on candidate profile or race dynamics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/obamaendorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=obamaendorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.