# Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC

> Bengaluru FC leads at 48%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:59.196Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: Bengaluru FC at 48%
- Runner-up: Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $72

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengaluru FC | 48¢ | ±0 | $20 | polymarket | /markets/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc-bengaluru-fc-polymarket-0x6ed6bbb4d5a3cfd8a47043e2c8b6a61f8e741ac572a4fd73211892c48e7fb83f |
| Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) | 27¢ | +8pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc-draw-odisha-fc-vs-bengal-polymarket-0x3e1682e973c76fd02126c8b46e04b78cf5a70d92cd70eff3adc96a1338a8ffd0 |
| Odisha FC | 24¢ | −6pp | $22 | polymarket | /markets/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc-odisha-fc-polymarket-0x87cd1487971209a36d3a98aa74d683ab63550f1f30e07eacacc1fd3175630903 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bengaluru FC | Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) | Odisha FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 37 | 33 | 41 |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | 32 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 | 31 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 | 39 | 35 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) +8pp 31→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Odisha FC −6pp 41→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 39% probability reflects market expectations that the Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC match will end in a draw. Markets currently see a draw as the most likely outcome, with a Bengaluru FC win priced at 36%, suggesting these teams are viewed as closely matched. The probability is driven primarily by historical head-to-head performance and recent form of both sides in the Indian Super League. Secondary factors include home-field advantage, injury status, and lineup composition closer to match day. The outcome will be determined when the fixture is played, making the actual result the critical catalyst that resolves all market uncertainty. Traders are positioned relatively close together across outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than overwhelming consensus.

### Key factors

- Historical draw frequency between these teams and their typical match patterns in ISL competition
- Current league standings, recent win-loss records, and goal-scoring differential for Odisha FC and Bengaluru FC
- Team news including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or significant lineup changes announced before kickoff
- Home venue performance record, as one team's home-field advantage or disadvantage affects tactical setup and execution
- Market volume concentration: only $20 in 24h volume on the lead contract suggests limited recent trading activity and potential for repricing on new information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.