# # of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections — 10+

> 10+ leads at 86%, runner-up 15% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/of-seats-won-dp-south-korea-elections
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:05:26.433Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: 10+ at 86%
- Runner-up: 8-9 at 15%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | 86¢ | +3pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-dp-in-south-korea-by-elections-10-polymarket-0xa2694315da159a18f38a07951f3b3871eadfe501442f3c8a4d623eeff1f6ac50 |
| 8-9 | 15¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-dp-in-south-korea-by-elections-8-polymarket-0xbe1b6be48dec02bf55faf971e45829b8957f2e4638907bff3c13a898cde69f16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 10+ | 8-9 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 26 | 73 |
| 2026-04-25 | 79 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 79 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 85 | 18 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · 10+ +3pp 79→82¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · 10+ +3pp 82→85¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that South Korea's opposition Democratic Party (DP) will win 10 or more seats in upcoming by-elections. The 81% confidence level suggests markets view a substantial DP victory as likely. The market pricing reflects the DP's recent polling strength and historical performance in by-elections, which often serve as referendums on the ruling party. The main factors pushing this probability upward are favorable public sentiment toward the opposition and typical mid-term electoral dynamics. Downward pressure could come from unexpected governing party momentum or voter turnout patterns favoring the ruling coalition. The probability will resolve once by-election results are officially counted and certified by South Korean election authorities. Current market volume on related contracts remains modest, suggesting limited real-money validation of these price levels.

### Key factors

- DP's recent polling position relative to the ruling PPP in national surveys
- Historical turnout and seat distribution patterns in South Korean by-elections over the past decade
- Public approval ratings for the current administration and opposition leadership
- Timing of the by-elections relative to major political events or policy announcements
- Official vote counts and seat allocations as reported by South Korea's National Election Commission

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/of-seats-won-dp-south-korea-elections
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=of-seats-won-dp-south-korea-elections
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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