# # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections — 3

> 3 leads at 50%, runner-up 38% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/of-seats-won-ppp-south-korea-elections
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.548Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: 3 at 50%
- Runner-up: 2 at 38%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 50¢ | +1pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-ppp-in-south-korea-by-elections-3-polymarket-0x2a2bf6aa08817456c5e00d6a77ead798765194084d21b8e4fccef3455f44373e |
| 2 | 38¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-ppp-in-south-korea-by-elections-2-polymarket-0x8dc8eb318d4c240c70b2792e07384a964cc74fd3c97ca22064376b2fb7603afa |
| 1 | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-ppp-in-south-korea-by-elections-1-polymarket-0xb790205b14222a8e7e57660b4d19db1c9b564fb0c49d12ebd02718d29808ea6a |
| 4 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/of-seats-won-by-ppp-in-south-korea-by-elections-4-polymarket-0xe4d2d02a0324edf4e2587c39dc02a659739694bf13c6bca22826f4ad70e8fcb2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3 | 2 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 30 | 31 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 | 30 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 | 40 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 | 38 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 51 | — | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · 3 +10pp 40→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · 2 −5pp 43→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · 1 −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 2 +3pp 40→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether South Korea's ruling Democratic Party (PPP) will win exactly 3 seats in upcoming by-elections. At 41%, the market suggests this outcome is neither favored nor unlikely, with traders roughly split between this scenario and alternatives like winning 0, 1, 5, or more seats. The PPP's seat count depends on voter turnout patterns, regional sentiment toward the current administration, and how effectively opposition parties mobilize support. The Democratic Party of Korea (DP) is heavily favored at 97 cents to win the most seats overall, suggesting a challenging environment for the ruling party. Resolution will occur once by-election results are officially certified, making the actual vote share and district-level performance the decisive factors in determining PPP's final seat count.

### Key factors

- Democratic Party of Korea (DP) heavily favored to win most seats overall (97¢), indicating headwinds for PPP performance
- PPP's exact seat count depends on vote distribution across multiple districts rather than overall vote share, creating outcome uncertainty
- Runner-up outcome priced identically at 41%, indicating market participants lack conviction about the 3-seat scenario versus competing alternatives
- Current market structure shows fragmented probabilities across multiple seat-count outcomes (0, 1, 3, 5), reflecting genuine uncertainty about PPP performance
- By-election timing and voter turnout in specific regions will mechanically determine which parties gain which seats

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/of-seats-won-ppp-south-korea-elections
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=of-seats-won-ppp-south-korea-elections
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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