# How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year

> At least 370 leads at 91%, runner-up 88% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oilrigs
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.198Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 370 at 91%
- Runner-up: At least 380 at 88%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 370 | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-370 |
| At least 380 | 88¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-380 |
| At least 390 | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-390 |
| At least 400 | 79¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-400 |
| At least 410 | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-410 |
| At least 420 | 68¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-420 |
| At least 430 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-oil-rigs-will-the-us-have-at-the-end-of-t-kalshi-kxoilrigs-26-430 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 380 | At least 390 | At least 400 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 82 |
| 2026-05-28 | 90 | 87 | 83 |
| 2026-05-29 | 89 | 86 | 82 |
| 2026-06-17 | 88 | 84 | 79 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 84 | 79 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 84 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates the probability that US oil rig counts will reach a specific threshold by December 31, 2026. The 90% probability reflects market confidence that rig deployment will remain within or exceed expected levels, supported by current drilling activity and industry capacity forecasts. The main drivers are crude oil prices (which incentivize or discourage drilling investment) and natural gas pricing, which affects rig utilization rates. Economic demand signals, Federal Reserve policy, and quarterly earnings reports from major drilling contractors will provide the clearest indicators of whether rig counts track toward the forecast level. The specific resolution date is December 31, 2026, when the actual rig count will be officially published by industry tracking services.

### Key factors

- Current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price relative to breakeven drilling costs (~$55-65/barrel threshold); sustained prices below this level historically reduce rig count growth
- US natural gas price trends and production dynamics, which determine whether gas-focused drilling remains economically viable versus oil drilling
- Quarterly rig count data from Baker Hughes published each Friday; consistent month-over-month trends would validate or challenge the forecasted trajectory
- Capital expenditure announcements and guidance from major drilling contractors (EOG, Diamondback, Pioneer) during earnings calls; management commentary directly signals near-term rig deployment plans
- Federal regulatory changes affecting drilling permits on federal lands or offshore zones; policy shifts could materially alter deployment rates in specific regions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oilrigs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oilrigs

## License

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