# OK-01 Republican Primary Winner

> Jackson Lahmeyer leads at 71%, runner-up 22% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ok01-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.455Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: Jackson Lahmeyer at 71%
- Runner-up: Mark Tedford at 22%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Lahmeyer | 71¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ok-01-republican-primary-winner-jackson-lahmeyer-polymarket-0x6e47a5547e34f9dbb26ebd67ce8693787d20251c5f1f909d377564aa040cd807 |
| Mark Tedford | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ok-01-republican-primary-winner-mark-tedford-polymarket-0x9d68465261466ff75df821881efdb495983f40a02e64d6c310dc91b6c8a39597 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jackson Lahmeyer | Mark Tedford |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 57 | 44 |
| 2026-05-22 | 62 | 40 |
| 2026-05-29 | 72 | 23 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Jackson Lahmeyer +6pp 65→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Mark Tedford −6pp 29→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Mark Tedford −5pp 34→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Mark Tedford −4pp 38→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Jackson Lahmeyer will win the Oklahoma 1st Congressional District Republican primary. At 60%, the market views him as the frontrunner but not a heavy favorite, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the nomination outcome. The primary outcome will depend on candidate endorsements, campaign spending, local voter preferences, and turnout patterns in this solidly Republican district. Early voting and election day results will ultimately resolve this market when the primary occurs, likely determining whether Lahmeyer maintains his lead or faces a late challenge from Mark Tedford (currently at 38%) or other candidates. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited sustained interest in this particular race among market participants.

### Key factors

- Jackson Lahmeyer holds a 22-point market lead over Mark Tedford, but combined non-Lahmeyer contracts represent 40% of the market, indicating no consensus around the alternative candidates
- Daily trading volume is minimal ($6 on the leading contract), reflecting low liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads that limit reliable price signals
- Mark Tedford at 38% represents the only viable challenger with material market backing, making the race functionally a two-candidate competition despite multiple candidates on the ballot
- The primary date and early voting calendar will be key drivers of price movement, with campaign events and endorsements likely to shift probabilities in the weeks before voting begins
- Oklahoma's 1st district is heavily Republican-leaning, making the GOP primary outcome the near-certain predictor of the general election winner

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ok01-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ok01-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.