# Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 93% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oklahoma-republican-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.177Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Probability: 93% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $21

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hern | 93¢ | +1pp | $21 | polymarket | /markets/oklahoma-republican-senate-primary-winner-kevin-he-polymarket-0xe3cb2859934ee2fde166693fb9e89f22bdc0316c00dd5abc85e7ee0a53c9b071 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 93 |
| 2026-04-28 | 83 |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 |
| 2026-05-07 | 93 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 90% probability reflects market expectation that a single candidate will secure the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary. At this confidence level, markets are pricing in a clear frontrunner, though primaries can shift with campaign developments, endorsements, or candidate positioning. The main factors supporting this level are likely a dominant frontrunner's polling lead and name recognition, while factors that could reduce it include consolidation of opposition votes or unexpected campaign events. The primary election date will definitively resolve this outcome, determining which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, market movements will track candidate fundraising reports, internal polling leaks, endorsement announcements, and debate performances that might suggest weakness in the current frontrunner or strength in challengers.

### Key factors

- Single frontrunner holds substantial polling lead compared to nearest competitor(s)
- Campaign finance reports show concentration of donor support behind primary favorite
- Undecided/uncommitted primary voters remain at levels where consolidation around alternatives is possible
- No major disqualifying events or scandals have significantly weakened leading candidate
- Primary election date is approaching, limiting time for narrative-shifting developments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oklahoma-republican-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oklahoma-republican-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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