# Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/okprimary
Updated: 2026-06-23T13:20:51.471Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $51K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford | 97¢ | +44pp | $51K | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-tedford-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ok-kalshi-kxokprimary-01r26-mted |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 24 |
| 2026-06-10 | 10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 73 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · Mark Tedford +44pp 29→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Tedford will win the Republican primary for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. At 57%, this reflects a competitive race where Tedford holds a slight edge. The assessment is primarily driven by candidate funding, endorsements, and grassroots support levels among Republican primary voters. Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract price indicates meaningful competition from another viable candidate. The primary election date will definitively resolve this uncertainty and determine the actual nominee. Until then, shifts in polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsements from state party officials could materially move the probability in either direction.

### Key factors

- Mark Tedford's contract price of 19¢ on Kalshi implies approximately 19% direct probability, conflicting with the 57% stated aggregate—indicating either data reconciliation needed or multiple contract outcomes being bundled
- Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract suggests the market views him as the frontrunner relative to Tedford, creating ambiguity about the actual competitive positioning
- Primary election date and filing deadline dates are critical catalysts that will narrow uncertainty and activate voter participation
- Campaign finance disclosures and quarterly FEC reports reveal actual fundraising disparities between candidates
- Endorsements from Oklahoma Republican Party leadership, state legislators, or national figures could significantly influence primary voter decisions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/okprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=okprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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