# Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales — 350k-400k

> 350k-400k leads at 46%, runner-up 37% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-girl-so-love-first
Updated: 2026-05-09T09:05:24.617Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Leader: 350k-400k at 46%
- Runner-up: 300k-350k at 37%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $124

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 350k-400k | 46¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0x1dc0ba41c11e0088509a2b3d38bcbc83c7ca5fc581f02102df161ae0cb1ed4ae |
| 300k-350k | 37¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0xfce7a369c452036112a590de72a867155df2100783497f76fc1dd9228fcfd4fa |
| 400k-450k | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0x7c6e62c6659b09d685292c944a69cb8487b3a6833a81ad29e8e117bf6f86039d |
| 450k+ | 31¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0xa0de46b27ad846a9e1085a8d2e81fc71c593187086864b769c0f62d3909511d5 |
| 250k-300k | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0xf7d43d04efb874daca551c0b0c67095595afb960c4517188687087c5427003fe |
| 200k-250k | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0x9dd0219eb57b21d53d9f563026f97a889f13130aecfff043e6c72685b35a62fd |
| <200k | 5¢ | −5pp | $124 | polymarket | /markets/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-i-polymarket-0xd226c6e56fb56bb1447811bc47c371420562b9ca3dcb226deed368f486a37f65 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 350k-400k | 400k-450k | 450k+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 28 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 28 | 34 |
| 2026-05-06 | 50 | 26 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 52 | 30 | 28 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | 32 | 24 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 33 | 27 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 450k+ −17pp 32→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · <200k −13pp 24→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 450k+ +13pp 15→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · <200k +12pp 11→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · <200k +10pp 8→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will achieve first-week sales between 350,000 and 400,000 copies. At 40%, this outcome leads slightly over the 400k-450k range at 28%, suggesting moderate confidence in mid-to-high performance but meaningful uncertainty about whether sales will exceed 400k. The probability reflects Rodrigo's established commercial track record—her previous albums 'SOUR' and 'GUTS' both debuted with strong sales—against variables including market saturation, streaming competition, and general album sales trends. First-week sales will be determined by Hits Daily Double's official count in the week following the album's wide release, providing a definitive resolution. Key drivers include pre-order momentum, radio/streaming playlist placement, and whether this release sees comparable promotional support to her previous work.

### Key factors

- Olivia Rodrigo's two prior studio albums debuted with 300k+ in first-week sales (SOUR: ~313k, GUTS: ~300k), establishing a performance baseline for comparison
- Pre-order data and streaming preview metrics (Spotify/Apple Music) from the days before official release will indicate consumer demand trajectory
- The 350k-400k range sits directly above her historical baseline, requiring either equivalent or modestly stronger performance than previous releases
- Competing major releases in the same chart week could fragment the audience; market share shifts among other albums affect absolute sales totals
- Hits Daily Double's final first-week tally, scheduled for release approximately 7-10 days after the album's drop, will definitively resolve whether sales fall into this specific bracket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-girl-so-love-first
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=olivia-rodrigo-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-girl-so-love-first

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