# OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May — 20 Million

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/opec-crude-oil-production-above-may
Updated: 2026-06-12T13:20:50.774Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-11

## Headline

- Leader: 19 Million at 30%
- Runner-up: 20 Million at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Million | 30¢ | −6pp | $261 | polymarket | /markets/opec-crude-oil-production-above-in-may-19-million-polymarket-0xc869e9bd1314e562f6dd82d86e8a62b696b086c9e2a24ad4a0369af2f042b0eb |
| 20 Million | 20¢ | −3pp | $106 | polymarket | /markets/opec-crude-oil-production-above-in-may-20-million-polymarket-0xc5c70d62dbb5116664e9b86bb4574c7d1b3a5307005dae542d305cae7c480e18 |
| 18 Million | 11¢ | +8pp | $710 | polymarket | /markets/opec-crude-oil-production-above-in-may-18-million-polymarket-0x30f13260d928abdd1e19f35ae4c8fed8a9f1000951f03b92da78af4a23acc64e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 19 Million | 20 Million | 18 Million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | — | 11 | 13 |
| 2026-05-27 | 13 | 12 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 10 | — | 10 |
| 2026-06-04 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| 2026-06-10 | 27 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-06-11 | 21 | 16 | 20 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · 19 Million +25pp 2→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · 20 Million +17pp 2→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · 18 Million −11pp 23→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · 18 Million +8pp 12→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · 19 Million −6pp 27→21¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/opec-crude-oil-production-above-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=opec-crude-oil-production-above-may
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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