# Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for August 2026 be above 39%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openadopt
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: economy · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 39.3% at 90%
- Runner-up: Above 39.7% at 28%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $303

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 39.3% | 90¢ | — | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t39.3 |
| Above 39.7% | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t39.7 |
| Above 39.9% | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t39.9 |
| Above 40.1% | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t40.1 |
| Above 39.5% | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t39.5 |
| Above 40.3% | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t40.3 |
| Above 40.5% | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ramp-ai-index-openai-model-adoption-rate-for-kalshi-kxopenadopt-26oct17-t40.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 39.3% | Above 39.7% | Above 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 50 | 21 | 20 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract measures whether OpenAI model adoption reached above 38.5% on the Ramp AI Index during August 2026. Markets currently assign a 45% probability to this outcome, reflecting uncertainty about adoption velocity in the near term. The primary factors driving this estimate are the frequency and magnitude of new OpenAI model releases, competitive moves by Anthropic and other AI providers, and real-time adoption patterns captured by the Ramp AI Index methodology. Since August 2026 is nearly complete as of the assessment date, the main uncertainty driver is whether final monthly adoption data will cross the 38.5% threshold. The resolution depends on how the Ramp AI Index publishes its end-of-month figure and whether adoption trends stabilize or accelerate in the final days of the month.

### Key factors

- Ramp AI Index historical trend for July 2026 and trajectory entering August would indicate proximity to the 38.5% threshold
- Timing and impact of any new OpenAI model releases or product announcements during August 2026
- Competitive positioning of alternative models (Claude, Gemini, open-source options) and their adoption growth rates in the same period
- Ramp AI Index methodology specifics: how adoption is counted, data collection timing, and whether measurements include API usage, application integrations, or other signals
- Volume concentration in lower-strike contracts (6¢ at >41.5%) versus the leader contract suggests market skepticism about adoption reaching substantially higher levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openadopt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openadopt
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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