# OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T

> 1T–1.25T leads at 11%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:11.828Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 1T–1.25T at 11%
- Runner-up: 1T–1.25T at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $139

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1T–1.25T | 11¢ | −4pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t-polymarket-0x3d876fb6a2136d8aeabb3f6b3c5129af020b8bf3139175c27e94d3c11cfad8c3 |
| 1T–1.25T | 6¢ | −1pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t-polymarket-0x602a7a6c7d65b55932e6cf8b6904cb7acdc728ca423ffd3ccb1988dd5501de13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1T–1.25T | 1T–1.25T |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 23 | 3 |
| 2026-05-25 | 23 | 14 |
| 2026-05-31 | 24 | 13 |
| 2026-06-01 | 24 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | 18 | 6 |
| 2026-06-08 | 14 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · 1T–1.25T −8pp 15→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 1T–1.25T −8pp 24→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · 1T–1.25T +4pp 16→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 1T–1.25T −4pp 22→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · 1T–1.25T −4pp 18→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures the likelihood that OpenAI will go public with a closing market capitalization between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion. The current 25% probability reflects meaningful but uncertain odds, positioned between a "no IPO by end-2026" contract at 73% and higher valuation outcomes at 11%. The main drivers are OpenAI's reported willingness to pursue public markets against its history of delaying capital-raising decisions. Related SpaceX IPO contracts show active trading around similar timeframes and valuations, suggesting investor interest in high-cap tech exits. The critical catalyst is any official SEC filing or company announcement—currently there is no confirmed IPO timeline. Resolution depends on whether OpenAI initiates the process in 2026 and achieves this specific valuation band, making both timing and final share price determinative.

### Key factors

- OpenAI has not filed an S-1 with the SEC as of May 2026; any official filing would be a concrete forward-looking event
- The 73% probability on 'no IPO by December 31, 2026' indicates market consensus favors delay beyond this calendar year
- A $1T–$1.25T range sits between the 73¢ bid on 'no IPO' and 11¢ on '$1.5T+', suggesting this band is neither consensus base case nor tail scenario
- SpaceX IPO contracts show active comparison markets at 33¢ for $1.5T–$2.0T, providing relative valuation context for mega-cap tech IPOs
- OpenAI's recent capital rounds and stated governance preferences will influence both IPO timing and final valuation range

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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