# OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500b
Updated: 2026-05-25T05:20:12.405Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <500B | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500b-polymarket-0x94f5db837b2d95d30fde488e64f5582b9e6ec0554a0d79a5e1715f3c3e42584f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | 4 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the odds that OpenAI's initial public offering will close with a valuation below $500 billion. Currently priced at 15%, it reflects market expectations that OpenAI will either go public at a higher valuation or not IPO by end-2026. The main factors influencing this low probability are OpenAI's demonstrated revenue growth and market positioning as a leader in AI, which typically command higher valuations, and the company's ability to raise private capital at substantial valuations. The biggest catalyst is any official IPO filing or announcement from OpenAI leadership, which would provide clarity on timing and valuation expectations. Secondary timing factors include regulatory developments around AI governance and competitive pressures from other AI companies pursuing public markets. The market currently assigns roughly equal weight to scenarios where OpenAI goes public at significantly higher valuations versus scenarios where no IPO occurs before year-end 2026.

### Key factors

- OpenAI raised private funding at $80B valuation in October 2023; subsequent market developments and revenue growth would typically support higher IPO valuations
- 73% market probability assigned to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' suggests market skepticism about near-term public offering timing
- Comparable valuations: recent SpaceX private rounds and other AI company public offerings provide benchmarks for IPO pricing expectations
- No official IPO filing or concrete timeline has been announced; regulatory clarity on AI companies may accelerate or delay public market entry
- OpenAI's competitive position and revenue trajectory relative to other enterprise software companies historically valued at 2-5x revenue multiples

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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