# OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 750B–1T

> 750B–1T leads at 6%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-750b1t
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:10.910Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 750B–1T at 6%
- Runner-up: 750B–1T at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $213

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 750B–1T | 6¢ | +1pp | $173 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-750b1t-polymarket-0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4 |
| 750B–1T | 4¢ | −7pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-750b1t-polymarket-0x8e2476aedbf95b6abfc78987b24e4404b02ee3b0609c1a254938a95bdadbeef4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 750B–1T | 750B–1T |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-20 | 8 | 27 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 21 |
| 2026-05-26 | 10 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 5 | 22 |
| 2026-06-07 | 6 | 22 |
| 2026-06-08 | 7 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 750B–1T +8pp 14→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 750B–1T +8pp 21→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 750B–1T −7pp 29→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · 750B–1T −6pp 22→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 750B–1T +5pp 16→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether OpenAI will conduct an IPO with a closing market capitalization between $750 billion and $1 trillion. At 22%, the market assigns roughly a one-in-five probability to this outcome. The low probability reflects two competing uncertainties: whether OpenAI will go public by December 31, 2026 (market-priced at 27%, based on the inverse of the 73¢ "no IPO" contract), and—conditional on an IPO occurring—whether the valuation will land in this specific band rather than higher or lower. The primary driver is timing: OpenAI has not announced IPO plans or a regulatory filing as of May 2026. If the company signals intent to pursue public markets before year-end, probabilities across all valuation tiers would shift materially. The secondary driver is valuation expectations. Current pricing suggests markets view outcomes above $1.5 trillion as more likely (11¢) or outcomes below $750 billion as plausible. A narrowing of this range through management guidance or market comps would clarify which strike is most likely. The $750B–$1T band sits in a middle zone with limited current conviction.

### Key factors

- OpenAI has made no public IPO announcement or SEC filing as of May 2026; any confirmation of IPO intent before Q4 2026 would be the primary probability mover
- Comparable AI company valuations (e.g., recent funding rounds, public comps like Nvidia) will anchor investor expectations for a closing price; current $1.5T+ pricing suggests skepticism about the midpoint band
- The 73¢ price on 'no IPO by December 31, 2026' implies only ~27% near-term IPO probability, making the $750B–$1T outcome dependent on an already-unlikely near-term listing at a specific valuation
- Recent market volatility and interest-rate expectations affect IPO appetite and valuation multiples across AI infrastructure; this band's specificity makes it sensitive to market-wide repricing
- Contractual settlement will require verified IPO closing documents; ambiguity around what "closing market cap" means (first-day close vs. prospectus valuation) could affect dispute resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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