# OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

> 1.5T+ leads at 47%, runner-up 42% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.216Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 1.5T+ at 47%
- Runner-up: 1.5T+ at 42%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5T+ | 47¢ | +10pp | $973 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-15t-polymarket-0x4a8005d19b41af72c1cd5c619640d9d51da548dd7c3544b12ae0c520d9e6805b |
| 1.5T+ | 42¢ | +7pp | $665 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-15t-polymarket-0x258cf80073b2deb3b08b53bd96715db3924458eb6d80ad670089cc639aa00260 |
| No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 28¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-no-ipo-by-december-3-polymarket-0x3849e1d62e0807801913d3e2427e8caf3cc6dd1c8ef42d8d5c08c6f9c449dc5e |
| 1.25T–1.5T | 16¢ | −3pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-125t15t-polymarket-0x0d03656e2a8161736c1165ad844c40d636e240804c220fc7d63565cfbe79422e |
| 1T–1.25T | 15¢ | −4pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t-polymarket-0x3d876fb6a2136d8aeabb3f6b3c5129af020b8bf3139175c27e94d3c11cfad8c3 |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 9¢ | −3pp | $62 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-no-ipo-by-december-3-polymarket-0x761b434b358af3e666e36d33a6c3dbfe05bd151957729f62f6820c1c2f98e9b8 |
| <500B | 8¢ | −2pp | $176 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500b-polymarket-0x08b39100a4d3d6ad1099e076fb69f781313c5b16975adf189d63542bd1ecca04 |
| 500–750B | 8¢ | −1pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500750b-polymarket-0x59273d3af89fe2ad2115f15c2102dc3511b246c3ba1960978cd99f7f6c35a09e |
| 750B–1T | 7¢ | +1pp | $173 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-750b1t-polymarket-0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4 |
| 750B–1T | 7¢ | −7pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-750b1t-polymarket-0x8e2476aedbf95b6abfc78987b24e4404b02ee3b0609c1a254938a95bdadbeef4 |
| 1T–1.25T | 6¢ | −1pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-1t125t-polymarket-0x602a7a6c7d65b55932e6cf8b6904cb7acdc728ca423ffd3ccb1988dd5501de13 |
| 500–750B | 5¢ | ±0 | $227 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500750b-polymarket-0x3f9f68feccc892303834833665bf204632438b028254fc2d5bceea757ff61ed3 |
| 1.25T–1.5T | 4¢ | −7pp | $374 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-125t15t-polymarket-0xa281783fc73b1a6927a301ee34cd90795470dc64b500673e445ba5e54f697c09 |
| <500B | 3¢ | −1pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-500b-polymarket-0x94f5db837b2d95d30fde488e64f5582b9e6ec0554a0d79a5e1715f3c3e42584f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1.5T+ | 1.5T+ | No IPO by December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 16 | 43 | 71 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 | 35 | 27 |
| 2026-06-01 | 31 | 35 | 31 |
| 2026-06-08 | 43 | 40 | 28 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · 1.5T+ +10pp 23→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · 1.5T+ +10pp 33→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 1.5T+ −9pp 30→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 1T–1.25T −8pp 15→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · 750B–1T +8pp 14→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects that traders believe OpenAI will not complete an initial public offering before the end of 2026—about 8 months away. At 72%, the market is pricing this outcome as more likely than an IPO completion, though not overwhelming. The timing hinges on OpenAI's profitability trajectory, regulatory approval timelines, and management decisions about remaining private. Current signals include whether the company files S-1 paperwork, meets SEC milestones, and signals public-market readiness. The main catalyst is any formal SEC filing or official public statement about IPO plans. Until concrete regulatory action or company announcements emerge, traders are treating a 2026 IPO as unlikely but possible.

### Key factors

- No S-1 registration statement has been publicly filed as of early May 2026, suggesting IPO process is not advanced
- OpenAI's valuation trajectory and profitability path would determine market appetite and timeline for public offering
- Historical precedent: comparable AI/software companies typically take 12–18 months from S-1 filing to IPO close
- SEC review and market conditions could accelerate or delay an IPO even if filing occurs imminently
- December 31, 2026 deadline leaves narrow window; any delay into 2027 resolves this contract negatively

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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