# Will OpenAI go public?

> December 31, 2026 leads at 75%, runner-up 37% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.371Z
Category: markets · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 75%
- Runner-up: September 30, 2026 at 37%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 75¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x66f5b8203ee1c36b993af623fd7f9ef7271dd87b3aebf6df508048ad4b563432 |
| September 30, 2026 | 37¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x23e52206ff8a49e4f097ac3b7f32826d930a0b6c76b7902a7858cf2183383c63 |
| August 31, 2026 | 7¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-by-august-31-2026-polymarket-0x8e5b3cca5dd6b5ad77bb203644722ceb5b9d12bfe2dd1ab19d5efd9bf854d04c |
| July 31, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/openai-ipo-by-july-31-2026-polymarket-0x1146a9020af0b4dafcba97375ac13f4dcc591b80c50efa7084973df14cc85833 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | August 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 27 | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | 63 | 55 | 35 |
| 2026-05-25 | 73 | 33 | 5 |
| 2026-06-01 | 71 | 41 | 6 |
| 2026-06-07 | 73 | 36 | 6 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 37 | 7 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · September 30, 2026 +8pp 33→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · September 30, 2026 −3pp 40→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · September 30, 2026 +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openai-ipo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openai-ipo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.