# Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 15 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openaibankpublic
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.884Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerview | 9¢ | −3pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-centerview-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-cvpxx |
| Evercore | 10¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-evercore-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-2028-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-evrx |
| Lazard | 8¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lazard-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-2028-l-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-lazx |
| Allen & Company | 35¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-allen-company-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-allcx |
| Qatalyst Partners | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-qatalyst-partners-take-openai-public-before-j-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-qatax |
| Moelis & Company | 9¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moelis-company-take-openai-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-mcx |
| PJT Partners | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pjt-partners-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-pjtx |
| Perella Weinberg Partners | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-perella-weinberg-partners-take-openai-public-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-pwpx |
| Rothschild & Co | 30¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rothschild-co-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-rothx |
| Greenhill & Co | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greenhill-co-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-ghlx |
| Piper Sandler | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-piper-sandler-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-piprx |
| William Blair | 33¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-blair-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-wblax |
| Needham & Company | 45¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-needham-company-take-openai-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-needx |
| Stifel Financial | 53¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stifel-financial-take-openai-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-sfx |
| Raymond James | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raymond-james-take-openai-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxopenaibankpublic-28jan01-rjfx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 26 |
| 2026-06-05 | 26 |
| 2026-06-06 | 25 |
| 2026-06-07 | 22 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Allen & Company +18pp 19→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Rothschild & Co +16pp 18→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Perella Weinberg Partners −13pp 29→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Raymond James +11pp 33→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Greenhill & Co +9pp 6→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Lazard will serve as the lead investment banker for OpenAI's initial public offering before January 1, 2028. Currently priced at 27%, it sits between competitors like Stifel Financial (57%) and Centerview (15%), suggesting moderate confidence in Lazard's candidacy. The level depends on two main variables: whether OpenAI decides to go public at all within the timeframe, and which firm the company selects as lead advisor if an IPO occurs. Lazard's 27% price is driven by its established position in major tech transactions, though competitors command higher implied probabilities, indicating market uncertainty about whether Lazard would be chosen versus larger rivals. The primary catalyst for resolution is OpenAI's formal announcement of IPO plans and its selection of underwriters, which could occur at any time but faces no scheduled deadline.

### Key factors

- Lazard's historical track record managing billion-dollar technology and media transactions compared to competing banks' recent relevant deals
- OpenAI's current ownership structure and whether existing stakeholders (Microsoft, Thrive Capital, others) would influence underwriter selection
- The relative pricing of competing underwriter contracts suggests market assigns 57% probability to Stifel, 45% to Raymond James, and 37% to Allen & Company, indicating distributed expectations
- No confirmed IPO timeline or underwriter selection announcement has been made as of June 2026, leaving the 18-month resolution window highly uncertain
- Lazard's smaller relative probability (27%) versus higher-priced competitors could reflect either lower market confidence or asymmetric information about the company's banking relationships

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openaibankpublic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openaibankpublic
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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