# Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 3 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openaileadleft
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:53.432Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $500

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 14¢ | −1pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-stanley-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-msx |
| Goldman Sachs | 5¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-goldman-sachs-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-kalshi-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-gsx |
| Citigroup | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-citigroup-serve-as-lead-left-underwriter-on-o-kalshi-kxopenaileadleft-28jan01b-citix |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | 52 |
| 2026-09-19 | 23 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Goldman Sachs −54pp 78→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Goldman Sachs +26pp 52→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Goldman Sachs +8pp 24→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 24% probability that JPMorgan Chase will be selected as the lead-left underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering. The lead-left underwriter role is a prestigious position in IPO syndicates, typically awarded to one of the major investment banks based on relationships, track record, and negotiated terms. JPMorgan's probability reflects its status as a top-tier bank, though it trails Goldman Sachs (66¢) significantly in market expectations. The gap between JPMorgan and Goldman likely reflects Goldman's historical dominance in tech IPOs and any reported preferences OpenAI may have signaled. Resolution depends on OpenAI's formal IPO filing and syndicate announcement, which typically occurs when the company officially registers with the SEC. Trading volume on JPMorgan's contract ($418 in 24 hours) suggests moderate market interest relative to the Goldman contract's lower volume, possibly indicating lower confidence in JPMorgan's chances among active traders.

### Key factors

- Goldman Sachs is priced at 66¢, commanding a substantial 42-percentage-point lead over JPMorgan, indicating market consensus favors Goldman for lead-left role
- JPMorgan's 24¢ price sits between Morgan Stanley (20¢) and Citigroup (4¢), positioning it as the second-most-likely among remaining banks
- No publicly announced OpenAI IPO filing or syndicate commitment has been disclosed, meaning resolution depends on a future formal announcement from OpenAI or its underwriters
- JPMorgan's historical relationships with OpenAI (financing, advisory roles) versus Goldman's track record in similar tech-sector IPOs will influence the actual selection
- The contract's $418 daily volume on JPMorgan versus $65 on Goldman suggests fewer traders are actively hedging JPMorgan's outcome, potentially indicating lower conviction in the alternatives

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openaileadleft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openaileadleft
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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