# Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31 — ↑$2.0T

> ↑$900B leads at 88%, runner-up 82% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openais-valuation-hit-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-15T10:20:44.942Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: ↑$900B at 88%
- Runner-up: ↑$1.0T at 82%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$900B | 88¢ | — | $323 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-900b-polymarket-0x6cfe7a9e60cccf76f79b654192e32585c1f4808ac1abbe17291386b5dc3d6242 |
| ↑$1.0T | 82¢ | — | $1K | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-10t-polymarket-0x6f107a898291e9e227ef0835f74062c7fbf450363da765cec5372b86cf3686c7 |
| ↑$1.25T | 64¢ | — | $98 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-125t-polymarket-0x0a0fb756d8dc5c3cf0a16eebc7d6d39406155a41e13d00bf615fc0fcd9e9c31a |
| ↓$800B | 63¢ | — | $47 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-800b-polymarket-0x3ae127fe5aea62414a5902c438ac63207d561fcb42c8a61ccef1a25f17e0570c |
| ↑$1.5T | 56¢ | — | $60 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-15t-polymarket-0xc71dbe9724f537b220b58e35a0a023ca9f6883117b3723eecf6384c5b2c51d45 |
| ↓$750B | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-750b-polymarket-0xf57c3d72c028f618464e1e472eda7ded96ce1c30c31e3a3c453e5e418a6f4de4 |
| ↑$1.75T | 41¢ | — | $250 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-175t-polymarket-0xb202db72798accbbae7e83a9ccb4e7120a6556af622a8acd51013041b29c100e |
| ↓$700B | 38¢ | — | $6 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-700b-polymarket-0x782472918d01e1f758c3601540be9cb25357e3ea567903dcb0372ec67ff49af1 |
| ↑$2.0T | 27¢ | — | $549 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-20t-polymarket-0x0ed3f07970b2d212acf460bbd4209a13ec4e4b45395b34f8d0bd9df05c909cda |
| ↓$600B | 23¢ | — | $34 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-600b-polymarket-0xf19307d3b033f5d9df233a70283fbdfdbff5f0b01ee3d9ad9b6e4f100b030f91 |
| ↓$500B | 14¢ | — | $51 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-500b-polymarket-0x042a712f74fb759c5eec43cdd1a70dd00d33671ff15fa70b4d47a559cc213f14 |
| ↑$2.5T | 11¢ | — | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-25t-polymarket-0x475c9930c09c7a7526a9596dd4dc191a31ef99253ccbf7045720501fc49ba0fb |
| ↑$3.0T | 7¢ | — | $888 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-30t-polymarket-0x62b614201ee04912119c4bd45e4ab8d98d05cc5a4c5af88d89e2b5728fbd1412 |
| ↑$4.0T | 7¢ | — | $115 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-40t-polymarket-0x192617b6b85adde1ce846a603effd87d76cc5e57c0a544f41388df8d4961fa2f |
| ↑$5.0T | 4¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31-50t-polymarket-0xedbfee6204f26891dbeaebf58c031cb8d9f66d5c9118b4fcdd886c75ba0071e3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑$1.0T | ↑$1.5T |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 83 | 56 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 88% probability that OpenAI's valuation will exceed $900 billion by year-end 2026. The high confidence reflects recent funding rounds and AI industry momentum, though the outcome depends heavily on OpenAI's reported financial metrics, user adoption figures, and broader venture capital conditions over the next six months. Uncertainty around whether the company pursues additional funding, achieves specific revenue milestones, or faces regulatory headwinds could shift the probability materially. The most immediate catalyst will likely be OpenAI's next reported financial results or any announced funding event, which would provide concrete valuation data to resolve market estimates.

### Key factors

- OpenAI's actual reported revenue and profitability metrics for H1 2026, which directly inform investor valuations in subsequent funding rounds
- Market appetite for AI infrastructure investment and venture capital deployment levels through December 2026, which determines available capital for late-stage rounds
- Regulatory developments affecting large AI labs, including any U.S. or international restrictions that could impact perceived company value
- Competitive pressures from other AI labs (Anthropic, Google DeepMind, etc.) and whether OpenAI maintains pricing power and market share assumptions
- Timeline and terms of any announced funding round by OpenAI before year-end, which would establish formal valuation milestones

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openais-valuation-hit-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openais-valuation-hit-december-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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