# OpenAI market share this week

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openshare
Updated: 2026-08-14T01:20:51.991Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15% at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 15.5% at 86%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15% | 93¢ | +3pp | $569 | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-15-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-15 |
| Above 15.5% | 86¢ | +7pp | $297 | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-155-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-15.5 |
| Above 16% | 80¢ | +11pp | $376 | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-16-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-16 |
| Above 16.5% | 58¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-165-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-16.5 |
| Above 17% | 53¢ | +27pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-17-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-17 |
| Above 17.5% | 34¢ | +16pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/openai-market-share-this-week-above-175-kalshi-kxopenshare-open-17.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15% | Above 15.5% | Above 16% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 83 | 68 | 52 |
| 2026-08-12 | 90 | 79 | 67 |
| 2026-08-13 | 93 | 86 | 78 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates traders see a 93% chance that OpenAI holds the largest market share in AI services this week, based on aggregated pricing from six contracts on Kalshi. The current level reflects confidence in OpenAI's existing customer base and product adoption, though substantial uncertainty remains around competitor gains or market consolidation. Key drivers include reported usage metrics, enterprise contract announcements, and competitive product releases from rivals like Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Resolution will depend on how market share is measured—typically revenue, active users, or API call volume—and the specific reference week chosen. Upcoming analyst reports, earnings statements, or major contract wins could shift the probability meaningfully, as could significant improvements in competitor offerings or pricing changes that affect market dynamics.

### Key factors

- The probability reflects a 93% leader price from six separate winner-take-all contracts, not an average—indicating substantial but not overwhelming consensus among traders
- Recent competitor product launches or feature parity claims would lower this probability if they demonstrably capture market share during the measured week
- The specific definition of market share (revenue vs. active users vs. API volume) will determine which company qualifies as leader and affects how traders price uncertainty
- Any material contract win or loss announced during the week could shift the outcome, particularly for large enterprises or government agencies
- Historical pricing patterns on these contracts show 6-7 point spreads between leader and runner-up, suggesting traders see real but concentrated uncertainty around leadership

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/openshare
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=openshare
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.