# Will the OpenAI average token price be above 0.32 at 10AM ET on Aug 14, 2026

> Above $0.20 leads at 80%, runner-up 75% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/opentokend
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.503Z
Category: crypto · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.20 at 80%
- Runner-up: Above $0.32 at 75%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $201

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.20 | 80¢ | −29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-020-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.20 |
| Above $0.32 | 75¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-032-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.32 |
| Above $0.35 | 68¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-035-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.35 |
| Above $0.30 | 65¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-030-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.30 |
| Above $0.38 | 61¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-038-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.38 |
| Above $0.41 | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-041-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.41 |
| Above $0.40 | 50¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-040-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.40 |
| Above $0.44 | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-044-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.44 |
| Above $0.47 | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-047-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.47 |
| Above $0.50 | 38¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-050-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.50 |
| Above $0.50 | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-050-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.50 |
| Above $0.53 | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-053-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.53 |
| Above $0.60 | 29¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-060-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.60 |
| Above $0.56 | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-056-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.56 |
| Above $0.62 | 22¢ | — | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-062-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.62 |
| Above $0.70 | 22¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-070-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.70 |
| Above $0.59 | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-059-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug14-t0.59 |
| Above $0.80 | 17¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-080-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.80 |
| Above $0.90 | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-090-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t0.90 |
| Above $1.00 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-openai-average-token-price-be-above-100-a-kalshi-kxopentokend-26aug31-t1.00 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.20 | Above $0.32 | Above $0.35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 49 | 73 | 66 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Above $0.20 −29pp 78→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above $0.30 −23pp 63→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above $0.40 −17pp 48→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above $0.50 −12pp 36→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above $0.60 −9pp 27→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that OpenAI's average token price will exceed $0.32 per token by 10AM ET on August 14, 2026—one week from today. The 73% probability reflects trader expectations that prices will remain at or above this threshold during the settlement window. Token pricing fluctuates based on demand for OpenAI's API services, model updates, competitive pricing from rival providers, and broader market conditions for AI infrastructure costs. The single most important factor is whether OpenAI announces price changes or new service tiers before the settlement date. Traders are also pricing in typical weekly volatility and seasonal patterns in API usage. The contract structure shows declining probabilities for higher price thresholds ($0.35, $0.38, $0.41), indicating meaningful uncertainty about how far prices might rise, but relative confidence they will stay above the $0.32 floor.

### Key factors

- OpenAI's published API token pricing as of August 7, 2026, and any official price announcements through August 14 10AM ET
- Comparative pricing movements from competing providers (Anthropic, Google, other AI API services) during the settlement week
- Historical volatility patterns in OpenAI token pricing over equivalent weekly windows in prior months
- Volume and demand signals from major API consumers that might influence dynamic pricing or promotional adjustments
- Any scheduled product announcements, model releases, or service updates from OpenAI between now and settlement that could impact token valuation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/opentokend
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=opentokend
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.