# Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 20 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oregon-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T12:05:47.218Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallory McMorrow | 33¢ | — | $625 | polymarket | /markets/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-mallory-polymarket-0xeb44a06c677ce7a47e5fd2007182e020a577395dc3613ad55d3d576e33964c3d |
| Jo Rae Perkins | 42¢ | — | $609 | polymarket | /markets/oregon-republican-senate-primary-winner-jo-rae-per-polymarket-0xbd5f01bc9f7d8214b9200773c72573987f0964f7bc4347fa6f1106ce9d1722c5 |
| David Brock Smith | 54¢ | — | $500 | polymarket | /markets/oregon-republican-senate-primary-winner-david-broc-polymarket-0x1b0943ccb9d5eb36f9961efb6c4f0c4f244b46a26215f176706d4bae2caf19bf |
| Zach Wahls | 28¢ | — | $431 | polymarket | /markets/iowa-democratic-senate-primary-winner-zach-wahls-polymarket-0x74e889ae900369de63774bf2ff1eca10ccc3e0295301425f6b4e32f4399aeec8 |
| Russell McAlmond | 3¢ | — | $415 | polymarket | /markets/oregon-republican-senate-primary-winner-russell-mc-polymarket-0xb43631c39df7b503d0982233abd43841510994af7104e9c9387ebf2219251084 |
| Dakarai Larriett | 13¢ | — | $192 | polymarket | /markets/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner-dakarai-l-polymarket-0x58b3694d040e4daee5afcb3123e369664f4e472906f53586c3e70bbca8ef9042 |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 49¢ | — | $106 | polymarket | /markets/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-abdul-el-polymarket-0xca0329cd4392d91e39df0702949229573d2415ae4a37b0103d0c6e9d03b8dd44 |
| Jeffrey Kessler | 78¢ | — | $104 | polymarket | /markets/west-virginia-democratic-senate-primary-winner-jef-polymarket-0x480bfbf8e0409933c542bdc1487fd3602c17d55bfb74e70e70ba618719d2268c |
| Annie Andrews | 92¢ | — | $97 | polymarket | /markets/south-carolina-democratic-senate-primary-winner-an-polymarket-0xd81615bc7ce4c6cd279a88d648ef3260b424eb6b541182e3c1f1dced2a1ca963 |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 72¢ | — | $75 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-marquit-polymarket-0x253a4a01dd09a35fd73e6671ddaacada7af886af4d5c196dfc9a6d50b1e735ba |
| Haley Stevens | 14¢ | — | $69 | polymarket | /markets/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner-haley-st-polymarket-0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e |
| Zachary Shrewsbury | 21¢ | — | $57 | polymarket | /markets/west-virginia-democratic-senate-primary-winner-zac-polymarket-0xa6f46ee9c2ff6977b5a578d8850f95b2f1644dc4874f475022a25bc3a491ca79 |
| Mark Wheeler | 5¢ | — | $52 | polymarket | /markets/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner-mark-whee-polymarket-0x79e4ed165173642ad0750242142e58206e0fe4155a6884d93c6b0c4fa80bd773 |
| Jim Priest | 25¢ | — | $41 | polymarket | /markets/oklahoma-democratic-senate-primary-winner-jim-prie-polymarket-0xac50f53a650c8de904c6944b02758d2c156409b8578a7d6838cdede8fc6cc7ba |
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 5¢ | — | $39 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-sandy-spid-polymarket-0x7746b132411eaddfa8459cdd260d3fcf486507536421ea2a50fff7df17f8db24 |
| Kevin Lee McCants | 5¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-kevin-l-polymarket-0x69a253a4deb42498ed12710fc52ea09fd49e4fa57af4c62095b07c1b46167c59 |
| Civil Miller-Watkins | 4¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-civil-m-polymarket-0xba0b63515cf8d5fc1b3cdb50286c3190f675e38adb82e6e264ff773b22f149f3 |
| Diana Onyeijaka | 14¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-diana-o-polymarket-0x9d34dd818467111581a0d7ca8c7e3160fa7e29f204273bfe41c2306da7ca75ed |
| Maria Brewer | 14¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-maria-b-polymarket-0x643a958ddf5f32f89a0a1e926b639e4c6589e7482cd5267597aa0cc72a70018d |
| Christy Davis | 12¢ | — | $26 | polymarket | /markets/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner-christy-da-polymarket-0x23138fc034c49853887431d6009400c26dbfb09525e0edc80878c218d19e28e8 |

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oregon-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oregon-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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