# Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaracto
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.826Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $142

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cruise | 26¢ | +1pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-cruise-win-best-actor-at-the-oscars-tom-c-kalshi-kxoscaracto-27-tom |
| John Malkovich | 28¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-malkovich-win-best-actor-at-the-oscars-j-kalshi-kxoscaracto-27-joh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 24 |
| 2026-05-01 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 25 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Charles Melton's 26% probability reflects market assessment of his likelihood to win Best Actor at the upcoming Oscars ceremony. This probability is based on limited trading activity on prediction markets, with the current estimate derived from just two Kalshi contracts. The main drivers of this probability would be Melton's film release schedule, critical reception of his performances, and competitive landscape among other actors in contention. The primary catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the announcement of Official Academy Award nominations, typically occurring in early 2027, which will clarify whether Melton receives a nomination and reveal the full slate of competitors. Until then, market prices may shift based on early festival seasons, critic reviews, and industry commentary about potential contenders.

### Key factors

- Limited market liquidity with only two Kalshi contracts trading suggests this probability reflects sparse betting rather than deep consensus; higher volume would provide stronger signal of informed opinion
- Charles Melton's nomination status remains unconfirmed, with Academy Awards nominations typically announced in January 2027, creating substantial uncertainty until official announcement
- Competitive intensity in Best Actor category significantly influences individual candidate probabilities; emergence of strong contenders or withdrawal of competing films would directly impact pricing
- Trading volume of $5,112 over 24 hours indicates relatively low market interest compared to Best Picture contracts, suggesting less sophisticated price discovery
- No upcoming scheduled events, award season festivals, or film releases specific to Melton appear imminent that would catalyze significant probability movement before official nominations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaracto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscaracto

## License

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