# Will Tie win Best Actress at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaractr
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.307Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate Reinsve | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-renate-reinsve-win-best-actress-at-the-oscars-kalshi-kxoscaractr-27-ren |
| Cynthia Erivo | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cynthia-erivo-win-best-actress-at-the-oscars-kalshi-kxoscaractr-27-cyn |
| Sandra Hüller | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandra-hller-win-best-actress-at-the-oscars-s-kalshi-kxoscaractr-27-san |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 22 |
| 2026-04-29 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Sandra Hüller −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Tie will win the Best Actress Oscar award. The current level suggests traders view Tie as an outside contender among the year's acting performances. The probability is likely driven by the strength of Tie's recent work and visibility heading into awards season, though it remains well below leading candidates. Key catalysts include the Golden Globe and BAFTA results, which typically signal momentum in the Oscar race, and the final Oscar nominations announcement, which determines the actual competitive field. Any significant critical or industry recognition would push expectations higher, while competing performances gaining traction could reduce Tie's chances.

### Key factors

- Tie's nomination status in major precursor awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG Awards) and their outcomes
- The overall strength and number of competing Best Actress contenders in the 2026 race
- Critical reception and industry commentary about Tie's performance relative to peers
- Historical voting patterns showing how often outside contenders at 12% probability convert to wins
- Tie's profile and previous Oscar history, if any, as a predictor of voter behavior

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaractr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscaractr

## License

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