# Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 5 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaranimated
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:52.066Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildwood | 25¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-wildwood-win-best-animated-feature-film-at-th-kalshi-kxoscaranimated-27-wil |
| Tangles | 4¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-tangles-win-best-animated-feature-film-at-the-kalshi-kxoscaranimated-27-tan |
| Toy Story 5 | 57¢ | −5pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-toy-story-5-win-best-animated-feature-film-at-kalshi-kxoscaranimated-27-toy |
| Hoppers | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hoppers-win-best-animated-feature-film-at-the-kalshi-kxoscaranimated-27-hop |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-best-animated-feature-film-at-the-osc-kalshi-kxoscaranimated-27-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | 25 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Wildwood +10pp 10→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Toy Story 5 −10pp 61→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Wildwood −8pp 18→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Wildwood +5pp 20→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Toy Story 5 +5pp 51→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 22% probability represents the estimated odds that Hoppers will win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. The estimate is significantly lower than Toy Story 5, which trades at 61%, suggesting market participants view Hoppers as a secondary contender in the animated feature category. The probability reflects assessments of the film's critical reception, industry recognition through precursor awards (like the Golden Globes and Annie Awards), and its standing relative to other nominees. Key drivers of movement would include changes in critical consensus, performance at film festivals, or shifts in voter sentiment within the Academy. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony, which typically takes place in early 2027 for films released in 2026. Until then, the probability may adjust based on emerging information about the competitive landscape and Hoppers' reception among Academy members.

### Key factors

- Toy Story 5 currently trades at 3.6x higher probability, indicating strong market confidence in its competitive position relative to Hoppers
- Zero trading volume in the 24-hour period for the Hoppers contract suggests minimal recent market activity and conviction
- Hoppers ranks third among the four tracked contracts, behind both Toy Story 5 and Wildwood in implied probability
- The market assigns combined probability of 81% to the three competitors versus 19% for Hoppers, indicating it is viewed as a long-shot entry
- Precursor award season performance (Golden Globes, Annie Awards, BAFTA) will provide major data points before Academy voting occurs in late 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscaranimated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscaranimated

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.