# Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 6 contracts — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarasplay
Updated: 2026-08-11T02:20:52.681Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $697

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 30¢ | −2pp | $474 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-odyssey-win-best-adapted-screenplay-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-ody |
| The Black Ball | 4¢ | +1pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-black-ball-win-best-adapted-screenplay-at-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-bla |
| The Invite | 9¢ | +1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-invite-win-best-adapted-screenplay-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-inv |
| Project Hail Mary | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-project-hail-mary-win-best-adapted-screenplay-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-pro |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-adventures-of-cliff-booth-win-best-adapte-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-adv |
| Toy Story 5 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toy-story-5-win-best-adapted-screenplay-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarasplay-27-toy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 42 |
| 2026-08-07 | 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | 20 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · The Black Ball +13pp 11→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · The Odyssey −5pp 42→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · The Black Ball +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · The Odyssey −4pp 37→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · The Invite −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Project Hail Mary has an 18-in-100 chance of winning the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. The low probability suggests significant competition from other adapted screenplays. Key drivers include the film's critical reception, box office performance, and industry sentiment during awards season. The main uncertainty resolves at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony, scheduled for March 2, 2027, when the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will be announced. Between now and then, the probability may shift based on major film festival recognitions, critical reviews, industry guild award nominations (such as the Writers Guild Awards in February 2027), and public campaigning by the studio.

### Key factors

- Project Hail Mary's screenplay adaptation quality and how closely it adheres to or diverges from Andy Weir's source material
- Competitive field strength: whether other adapted screenplays generate stronger critical consensus or industry support
- Guild award performance: nominations and wins at Writers Guild Awards or similar industry bodies before the Oscars
- Box office and cultural impact: whether the film maintains audience and critic enthusiasm through awards season
- Studio campaign intensity: resources and visibility devoted to promoting the screenplay adaptation relative to competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarasplay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarasplay

## License

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