# Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 8 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscardocu
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:50.924Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $455

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Doctor | 14¢ | +1pp | $455 | kalshi | /markets/will-american-doctor-win-best-documentary-feature-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-ame |
| Musk | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-win-best-documentary-feature-film-at-the-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-mus |
| Nuisance Bear | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nuisance-bear-win-best-documentary-feature-fi-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-nui |
| One in a Million | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-one-in-a-million-win-best-documentary-feature-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-one |
| Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sometimes-i-imagine-them-all-at-a-party-win-b-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-som |
| Tutu | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tutu-win-best-documentary-feature-film-at-the-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-tut |
| Once Upon a Time in Harlem | 5¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-once-upon-a-time-in-harlem-win-best-documenta-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-onc |
| Tie | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-best-documentary-feature-film-at-the-kalshi-kxoscardocu-27-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | 10 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-10 · Once Upon a Time in Harlem −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · American Doctor +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Once Upon a Time in Harlem +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · American Doctor +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the probability that Nuisance Bear will win the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. With a 4% probability, the market is pricing this as a long-shot outcome. The current assessment likely reflects limited early buzz or critical recognition compared to other documentary contenders. Documentary feature odds are typically driven by festival circuit performance, critical reception, streaming platform backing, and industry voting patterns among Academy members. The main catalyst will be the official Oscar nominations announcement, which will immediately clarify whether Nuisance Bear has secured a nomination and how it ranks against competing films. The nomination itself would substantially shift expectations about winning chances.

### Key factors

- The film's performance at major documentary festivals (Sundance, IDFA, Hot Docs, Sheffield Doc/Fest) will influence critic and Academy voter awareness
- Current industry trade publications and major awards prediction outlets show minimal coverage or predictions favoring this film as a frontrunner
- Streaming platform backing and theatrical release strategy significantly impact visibility and voting turnout within the Academy's documentary branch
- The film must first receive a nomination to have realistic winning odds; non-nominated films carry negligible chances regardless of quality
- Competitive field strength matters—the probability reflects assumptions about other contending documentaries and their relative strength rather than absolute assessment of this film's merits

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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