# Will Clayface win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarmah
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:49.324Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $604

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digger | 7¢ | +6pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-digger-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-dig |
| Werwulf | 6¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-werwulf-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-wer |
| Wicker | 16¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-wicker-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-wic |
| Clayface | 14¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clayface-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-cla |
| Part Three win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dune-part-three-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyli-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-dun |
| The Odyssey | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-odyssey-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-a-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-ody |
| Rose | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rose-win-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-at-the-o-kalshi-kxoscarmah-27-ros |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | 9 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Digger +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Wicker +4pp 14→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Part Three win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Rose +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 11% probability reflects market expectations that Clayface will win the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. The low probability suggests traders view Clayface as a longshot compared to other contenders like The Odyssey and Wicker. The makeup award outcome depends primarily on the quality and visibility of the film's makeup work, critical reception of the film overall, and how the Academy voting body responds to the specific makeup achievements. The resolution is scheduled for the 2027 Oscar ceremony, typically held in March, when Academy members cast final votes. Until nominees are formally announced and campaigning intensifies closer to the ceremony, the market reflects significant uncertainty about how Clayface will be positioned relative to stronger contenders.

### Key factors

- Clayface's makeup work has not yet received significant awards recognition or critical acclaim in major industry publications
- The film's overall commercial and critical performance will likely influence voters' engagement with its technical categories
- Competing films' makeup achievements and their studios' awards campaign intensity will directly affect relative voting patterns
- The formal Oscar nomination announcement will reduce uncertainty and establish Clayface's competitive positioning against confirmed rivals
- Historical voting patterns show Best Makeup and Hairstyling often rewards practical makeup effects on period pieces or transformative work, which may or may not align with Clayface's technical approach

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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