# 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations

> John Malkovich leads at 65%, runner-up 59% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomacto
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.624Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: John Malkovich at 65%
- Runner-up: Tom Cruise at 59%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $734

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-john-malkovich-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-joh |
| Tom Cruise | 59¢ | −2pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-tom-cruise-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-tom |
| Ryan Gosling | 57¢ | +8pp | $386 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-ryan-gosling-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-rya |
| Sebastian Stan | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-sebastian-stan-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-seb |
| Matt Damon | 38¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-matt-damon-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-mat |
| Jeremy Strong | 29¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-jeremy-strong-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-jer |
| Timothée Chalamet | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-timothe-chalamet-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-tim |
| Dominic Sessa | 27¢ | +19pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-dominic-sessa-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-dom |
| Adam Driver | 22¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-adam-driver-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-ada |
| Brad Pitt | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-brad-pitt-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-bra |
| Sam Rockwell | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-sam-rockwell-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-sam |
| Josh O'Connor | 18¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-josh-oconnor-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-jos |
| Charles Melton | 17¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-charles-melton-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-cha |
| Robert Aramayo | 17¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-robert-aramayo-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-rob |
| Jaafar Jackson | 16¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-jaafar-jackson-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-jaa |
| Andrew Scott | 16¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-andrew-scott-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-and |
| Pedro Pascal | 15¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-pedro-pascal-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-ped |
| Channing Tatum | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-channing-tatum-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-chan |
| Keanu Reeves | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actor-oscar-nominations-keanu-reeves-kalshi-kxoscarnomacto-27-kea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | John Malkovich | Tom Cruise | Ryan Gosling |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 56 | 55 |
| 2026-05-14 | 56 | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 60 | 59 | 52 |
| 2026-05-31 | — | — | 50 |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 52 | 53 |
| 2026-06-04 | 65 | — | 50 |
| 2026-06-07 | 66 | 61 | 58 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 59 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Dominic Sessa +19pp 8→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Andrew Scott +11pp 5→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Ryan Gosling +8pp 50→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Tom Cruise −7pp 59→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Tom Cruise +6pp 55→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 65% probability that Jaafar Jackson receives a Best Actor Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The nomination window typically opens in early 2027 when films become eligible and close in late January, with nominations announced in late January or early February. The current odds reflect market participants' assessment of Jackson's competitive position against other likely nominees, based on available film slate information and historical voting patterns. Key variables include the performance and critical reception of Jackson's nominated film during the award season, the overall strength of the 2027 acting field, and voter sentiment during the actual voting period. The biggest catalyst will be the official nomination announcement in late January or February 2027, which will definitively settle this contract. Until then, market pricing adjusts as new films release, critical reviews emerge, and industry insiders share predictions.

### Key factors

- Jaafar Jackson's contract trades at 65¢ while nearest competitor Ryan Gosling is at 51¢, indicating market differentiation but relatively close competition
- The underlying Kalshi contracts show low trading volume ($597 24h for the leader), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially high bid-ask spreads
- No films or roles are named in the contract structure, meaning the market is pricing nomination probability regardless of specific project details
- The 2027 nomination announcement will occur in late January or early February 2027, providing a hard resolution date for all 16 competing actor outcomes
- Historical Best Actor nomination rates suggest nominees typically come from approximately 10-15 major studio/prestige releases, making field strength a material variable

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomacto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomacto

## License

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