# 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations

> Renate Reinsve leads at 61%, runner-up 61% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomactr
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.604Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Renate Reinsve at 61%
- Runner-up: Sandra Hüller at 61%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate Reinsve | 61¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-renate-reinsve-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-ren |
| Sandra Hüller | 61¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-sandra-hller-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-san |
| Julianne Moore | 44¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-julianne-moore-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-jul |
| Mikey Madison | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-mikey-madison-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-mik |
| Emily Blunt | 43¢ | +5pp | $346 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-emily-blunt-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-emi |
| Inde Navarrette | 32¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-inde-navarrett-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-ind |
| Cynthia Erivo | 32¢ | −8pp | $301 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-cynthia-erivo-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-cyn |
| Michelle Williams | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-michelle-willi-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-mic |
| Scarlett Johansson | 17¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-scarlett-johan-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-sca |
| Joan Collins | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-joan-collins-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-joa |
| Lily Gladstone | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-lily-gladstone-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-lil |
| Natalie Portman | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-natalie-portma-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-nat |
| Penélope Cruz | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-penlope-cruz-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-pen |
| Zendaya | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-zendaya-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-zen |
| Daisy Edgar-Jones | 13¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-daisy-edgar-jo-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-dai |
| Kirsten Dunst | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-kirsten-dunst-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-kir |
| Michelle Monaghan | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-michelle-monag-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-mich |
| Shailene Woodley | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-shailene-woodl-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-sha |
| Dakota Johnson | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-actress-oscar-nominations-dakota-johnson-kalshi-kxoscarnomactr-27-dak |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Renate Reinsve | Sandra Hüller | Julianne Moore |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 43 | 48 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 53 | 62 | 17 |
| 2026-05-25 | 62 | 54 | 38 |
| 2026-05-28 | 26 | 54 | 33 |
| 2026-06-01 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 53 | 53 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 62 | — | — |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 61 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Renate Reinsve +9pp 53→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Cynthia Erivo −8pp 40→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Sandra Hüller +8pp 53→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Emily Blunt +5pp 34→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Cynthia Erivo −5pp 45→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the current market estimate that Sandra Hüller will receive a Best Actress Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. At 46%, the market prices her as the leading contender, though substantially competitive with a runner-up candidate at 42%, indicating genuine uncertainty about which actresses will ultimately be nominated. The probability is driven by Hüller's recent film performance visibility, award-season momentum, and historical patterns of which actresses tend to secure nominations. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nomination announcement, currently scheduled for early 2027. Leading up to that date, major factors include continued festival recognition, critical reception of competing performances, guild awards like the SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations (typically announced in January), and any shifts in industry conversation about frontrunners. Market prices reflect traders' assessments of these evolving signals rather than polling or definitive industry consensus.

### Key factors

- Sandra Hüller's recent filmography and festival recognition relative to competing actresses
- SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations in January 2027 as leading indicators of Oscar nomination likelihood
- The specific slate of films released and eligible for the 2027 Oscar cycle, which determines the pool of possible nominees
- Historical patterns showing approximately 5 actresses are nominated each year, making the competitive field and relative positioning of candidates critical
- Market concentration on Hüller (46%) versus runner-up (42%) suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than a clear frontrunner scenario

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomactr

## License

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