# 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations

> The Black Ball leads at 68%, runner-up 63% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomasplay
Updated: 2026-06-08T13:20:07.809Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: The Black Ball at 68%
- Runner-up: Project Hail Mary at 63%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Black Ball | 68¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-bla |
| Project Hail Mary | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-pro-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-pro |
| The Odyssey | 59¢ | −1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-ody |
| The Social Reckoning | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-soc |
| Dune: Part Three | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-dun-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-dun |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 33¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-adv |
| All of a Sudden | 33¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-all-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-all |
| Cry to Heaven | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-cry-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-cry |
| Wildwood | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-wil-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-wil |
| Clarissa | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-cla-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-cla |
| Toy Story 5 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-toy-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-toy |
| The Invite | 7¢ | — | $34 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-inv |
| The Whisper Man | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-adapted-screenplay-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnomasplay-27-whi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Black Ball | Project Hail Mary | The Odyssey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | — | 62 | — |
| 2026-05-22 | — | 63 | 54 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 64 | 60 |
| 2026-05-27 | 56 | 64 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 66 | 64 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 64 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 68 | — | 59 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the 60% probability that a specific film or screenplay will receive a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The current pricing reflects modest confidence among traders, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which screenplays voters will select. The nomination field typically narrows between now and late 2026, as industry prognosticators identify frontrunners based on festival performance, critical reception, and guild recognition patterns. The Writers Guild Awards eligibility and nominations (usually January-February 2027) will serve as a key signal of adapted screenplay momentum. Additionally, major film festival selections and critical consensus building over the next 8-10 months will substantially influence trader expectations. The low contract volumes suggest limited trading activity, which can amplify price sensitivity to new information about eligible films and their industry positioning.

### Key factors

- Writers Guild Awards nominations for adapted screenplay category (typically January-February 2027) will provide direct evidence of peer recognition and shift expectations
- Major film festivals (Venice, Toronto, NYFF) over fall 2026 will affect which adapted screenplays gain critical legitimacy and award-season visibility
- The specific films competing for nominations will not be fully defined until studios finalize 2026-2027 release schedules and submission strategies
- Trading volume remains low ($180-697 daily across top contracts), indicating limited market conviction and potential for repricing as more information emerges
- Historical Academy voting patterns show adapted screenplays from prestige dramas and literary adaptations dominate nominations, which will influence which projects receive trader attention

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomasplay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomasplay

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.