# 2027 Achievement in Casting Oscar nominations

> The Black Ball leads at 61%, runner-up 51% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnombcasting
Updated: 2026-06-08T13:20:10.207Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: The Black Ball at 61%
- Runner-up: The Odyssey at 51%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Black Ball | 61¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-bla |
| The Odyssey | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-the-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-ody |
| Wild Horse Nine | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-wild-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-wil |
| Digger | 41¢ | +37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-digg-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-dig |
| Fjord | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-fjor-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-fjo |
| Cry to Heaven | 31¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-cry-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-cry |
| Dune: Part Three | 29¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-dune-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-dun |
| Being Heumann | 20¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-bein-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-bei |
| Saturn Return | 16¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-satu-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-sat |
| UNABOMBER | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-unab-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-una |
| Clarissa | 14¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-clar-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-cla |
| Michael | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-achievement-in-casting-oscar-nominations-mich-kalshi-kxoscarnombcasting-27-mic |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Black Ball | The Odyssey | Wild Horse Nine |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 40 |
| 2026-05-15 | — | 47 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | — | 47 | 48 |
| 2026-05-26 | — | 49 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 51 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 64 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 61 | — | 47 |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 51 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | — | — | 47 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for casting recognition at the 2027 Academy Awards, with the leading contract suggesting a 52% chance that specific casting announcements will meet certain criteria. The market is concentrated on individual actor nominations—particularly Ryan Gosling at 51¢—rather than ensemble outcomes. Movement in this probability would depend on confirmed film projects entering production, release schedules being announced, and industry award recognition patterns. The main catalyst is the announcement of major 2027 film releases with star-studded casts in late 2026 and early 2027. Oscar eligibility voting occurs in early 2027, with nominations announced in January 2027, providing a fixed resolution date. Current trading volume remains modest across most outcomes, suggesting limited consensus on secondary casting possibilities.

### Key factors

- Ryan Gosling contract trades at 51¢ while other major actors (Jaafar Jackson at 15¢, others at 3¢), indicating concentrated market focus on specific casting outcomes
- Limited 24-hour trading volume ($180-$700 across contracts) suggests modest conviction or liquidity, with no outcome showing dominant market consensus
- Oscar eligibility and voting deadlines occur in January 2027, providing a hard constraint on when films must complete production and be submitted
- The contract structure covers multiple distinct outcomes with winner-take-all terms, meaning market probability allocates ~37% to all non-leader scenarios combined
- Film production announcements and release schedule confirmations between May 2026 and December 2026 will determine which projects qualify for the 2027 awards cycle

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnombcasting
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnombcasting

## License

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