# 2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations

> The Odyssey leads at 85%, runner-up 69% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomcin
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.565Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: The Odyssey at 85%
- Runner-up: Dune: Part Three at 69%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 85¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-the-ody-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-ody |
| Dune: Part Three | 69¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-dune-pa-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-dun |
| Digger | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-digger-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-dig |
| 1949 / Fatherland | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-1949-fa-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-fat |
| Project Hail Mary | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-project-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-pro |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-the-adv-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-adv |
| Josephine | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-josephi-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-jos |
| The Whisper Man | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-cinematography-oscar-nominations-the-whi-kalshi-kxoscarnomcin-27-whi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Odyssey | Dune: Part Three | Digger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | — | 68 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 86 | — | 56 |
| 2026-06-09 | 82 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 83 | 69 | 58 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 68 | 57 |
| 2026-06-23 | 85 | 70 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 69 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that at least one cinematographer will receive a 2027 Oscar nomination, with current pricing at 85% suggesting traders view this as a strong likelihood. The Academy has historically nominated cinematography work across diverse genres and budgets, making shutouts uncommon. The main drivers of this probability are the volume and quality of theatrical releases between now and the nomination deadline, plus the specific creative achievements in cinematography that emerge during this window. The single biggest catalyst will be the Academy's announcement of nominees in early 2027, typically in late January or early February, which will definitively resolve this contract. Market uncertainty reflects variability in which specific cinematographers might be recognized rather than doubt about whether any nominations will occur at all.

### Key factors

- The Academy has nominated cinematography in all of the last 20+ consecutive Oscar ceremonies, making a zero-nomination outcome historically anomalous
- Market pricing of 85% implies traders assess roughly 15% probability of no cinematography nominations, equivalent to expecting an unprecedented break in nomination patterns
- The nomination pool depends on theatrical releases and streaming eligibility decisions made between now and the December 31, 2026 cutoff for 2027 consideration
- Contract volume and pricing volatility suggest moderate liquidity but not consensus certainty, with significant disagreement possible as major film productions are finalized
- The February 2027 nomination announcement represents the sole resolution date; no intermediate data releases will settle this market before that point

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomcin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomcin

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