# 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations

> 1949 / Fatherland leads at 82%, runner-up 78% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnominterfilm
Updated: 2026-06-30T01:20:48.975Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 1949 / Fatherland at 82%
- Runner-up: The Black Ball at 78%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $558

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1949 / Fatherland | 82¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-194 |
| The Black Ball | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-bla |
| Fjord | 67¢ | +1pp | $558 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-fjo |
| All of a Sudden | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-all |
| Minotaur | 37¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-min |
| Coward | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-cow |
| Rose | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-ros |
| Hope | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-hop |
| Possible Love | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-pos |
| The Dreamed Adventure | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-dre |
| Parallel Tales | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-par |
| The Man I Love | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-man |
| The Beloved | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-bel |
| Bitter Christmas | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-international-feature-film-oscar-nominat-kalshi-kxoscarnominterfilm-27-bit |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1949 / Fatherland | The Black Ball | Fjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | — | — | 56 |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 81 | 61 |
| 2026-06-02 | 82 | 80 | 61 |
| 2026-06-10 | 83 | 81 | 42 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 77 | 41 |
| 2026-06-20 | 82 | 78 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | — | 77 | 52 |
| 2026-06-28 | — | 77 | 53 |
| 2026-06-29 | — | 78 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Minotaur −6pp 43→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Hope +5pp 15→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates market traders estimate approximately 68% odds that "1949 / Fatherland" will receive a nomination for Best International Feature Film at the 2027 Academy Awards. The current assessment reflects the film's standing relative to competing international submissions as of May 2026. The trajectory could shift based on festival performance, critical reception updates, and industry discourse over the coming months leading to the December 2026 submission deadline. The primary catalyst for resolution occurs when the Academy announces official nominations in January 2027, which will definitively determine whether this particular film qualifies. Until then, market participants are pricing in moderate confidence balanced against uncertainty from competing films and potential late-season entries that could affect its nomination prospects.

### Key factors

- "1949 / Fatherland" must be officially submitted by its country's Film Academy to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences by the December 2026 international feature submission deadline
- The film's ranking relative to other international submissions will become clearer through major film festival selections and industry screenings between May and November 2026
- Critical reviews and international film community reception over the next eight months will influence trader confidence in its nomination viability
- Competing films from major film-producing nations and emerging regional submissions could reduce the probability if they gain stronger industry momentum
- Official nomination announcements occur in January 2027, which is the binary resolution event that will determine the contract outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnominterfilm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnominterfilm

## License

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