# 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations

> Digger leads at 66%, runner-up 50% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnommakeup
Updated: 2026-06-08T13:20:07.242Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Digger at 66%
- Runner-up: Dune: Part Three at 50%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digger | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-dig |
| Dune: Part Three | 50¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-dun |
| Werwulf | 48¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-wer |
| Clayface | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-cla |
| The Odyssey | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-ody |
| Cry to Heaven | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-cry |
| Michael | 25¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-mic |
| Madden | 18¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-mad |
| Rose | 16¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-ros |
| The Social Reckoning | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-soc |
| UNABOMBER | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-makeup-and-hairstyling-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnommakeup-27-una |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Digger | Dune: Part Three | Werwulf |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 66 | 50 | — |
| 2026-05-14 | — | — | 16 |
| 2026-05-25 | 67 | 49 | 55 |
| 2026-05-30 | 66 | 48 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | — | — | 48 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 51 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Michael −4pp 29→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Dune: Part Three +3pp 48→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' expectations that the 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling category will receive five nominations as currently structured by the Academy. The 64% probability on the leading contract suggests moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant uncertainty remains. The main driver is Academy precedent—this category has maintained five nominations in recent years, but the Academy occasionally adjusts nomination counts based on submission volume and ballot participation. The key catalyst will be the Academy's official announcement of 2027 Oscar eligibility rules and nomination procedures, typically released in late 2026 or early 2027. Market movement would likely follow any public signals about potential reforms to voting procedures or category structure. Current trading volume remains modest, indicating limited institutional participation in these specific contracts.

### Key factors

- Academy's historical pattern shows five nominations in this category for recent ceremonies, establishing baseline precedent
- Official eligibility and nomination rules announcement, typically 6-9 months before the ceremony, will clarify whether structural changes are planned
- Submission volume in makeup and hairstyling films affects whether the five-nomination threshold is sustainable under current ballot design
- Changes to Academy voting procedures or technological limitations in the balloting system could force category restructuring
- Precedent shifts in other technical categories (where nomination counts have varied) may signal broader willingness to modify this category's structure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnommakeup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnommakeup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.