# 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations

> Project Hail Mary leads at 78%, runner-up 72% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnompic
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.095Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Project Hail Mary at 78%
- Runner-up: Dune: Part Three at 72%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | 78¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-project-hail-m-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-pro |
| Dune: Part Three | 72¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-dune-part-thre-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-dun |
| Digger | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-digger-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-dig |
| The Black Ball | 61¢ | −3pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-the-black-ball-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-bla |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-the-adventures-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-adv |
| Club Kid | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-club-kid-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-clu |
| Disclosure Day | 32¢ | −9pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-disclosure-day-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-dis |
| Being Heumann | 30¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-being-heumann-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-bei |
| Obsession | 27¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-obsession-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-obs |
| Cry to Heaven | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-cry-to-heaven-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-cry |
| Behemoth | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-behemoth-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-beh |
| All of a Sudden | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-all-of-a-sudde-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-all |
| Werwulf | 9¢ | −8pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-werwulf-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-wer |
| The Death of Robin Hood | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-the-death-of-r-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-dea |
| Artificial | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-artificial-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-art |
| I Love Boosters | 6¢ | −3pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-i-love-booster-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-ilo |
| The Invite | 4¢ | −3pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-the-invite-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-inv |
| Hope | 4¢ | +2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-picture-oscar-nominations-hope-kalshi-kxoscarnompic-27-hop |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Project Hail Mary | Dune: Part Three | Digger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 66 | — | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 67 | 72 | 62 |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 73 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 69 | — | 69 |
| 2026-05-30 | 70 | — | 68 |
| 2026-06-01 | 75 | 71 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 77 | 72 | — |
| 2026-06-07 | 77 | — | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Disclosure Day −9pp 43→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Werwulf −8pp 17→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Disclosure Day +7pp 35→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Obsession +5pp 14→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Project Hail Mary +4pp 71→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that "The Odyssey" will receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The film is currently priced at 86 cents, indicating strong confidence in its nomination, though this reflects traders' expectations rather than official confirmation. The nomination probability is driven by available reviews, festival reception, and historical patterns of similar films achieving Oscar recognition. Major factors include the film's critical performance during the current awards season, competition from other strong contenders like "Disclosure Day" (priced at 41 cents), and the Academy's tendency to nominate certain genres or storytelling styles. The key catalyst will be the official announcement of the 2027 Best Picture nominations, which typically occurs in late January 2027, resolving all uncertainty around this contract.

### Key factors

- The Odyssey's critical reception scores and festival performance compared to historical Oscar nominees
- Competition intensity from other nominated titles, particularly "Disclosure Day" and films trading below 10 cents
- The relative trading volume and price stability of The Odyssey contract ($90 in 24h volume) versus lower-conviction contracts like Michael and Narnia
- Academy voting patterns for films in The Odyssey's genre and production category over the past five years
- Any significant cast, director, or production company announcements between now and the January 2027 nomination announcement deadline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnompic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnompic

## License

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