# 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nominations

> Toy Story 5 leads at 90%, runner-up 81% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomsbanimatedf
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.898Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Toy Story 5 at 90%
- Runner-up: Wildwood at 81%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toy Story 5 | 90¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-toy |
| Wildwood | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-wil |
| Hoppers | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-hop |
| Tangles | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-tan |
| Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-sha |
| Forgotten Island | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-for |
| Ray Gunn | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-animated-feature-film-oscar-nominations-kalshi-kxoscarnomsbanimatedf-27-ray |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Toy Story 5 | Wildwood | Hoppers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 75 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | — | — | 72 |
| 2026-06-11 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 74 | 77 | 72 |
| 2026-06-19 | 79 | 78 | 72 |
| 2026-06-23 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | — | — | 74 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Toy Story 5 +7pp 81→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Hoppers +4pp 72→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Toy Story 5 +4pp 75→79¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market currently prices 'Hoppers' at 81% likelihood to receive a 2027 Best Animated Feature Film Oscar nomination. This reflects bets aggregated across six competing contracts on Kalshi, where Hoppers holds a commanding lead over the second-place option at 77%. The probability level suggests traders view this film as a strong contender for nomination based on current information. The Oscars ceremony and nomination announcement scheduled for early 2027 will definitively resolve this outcome. Key uncertainties include the film's actual release date and quality reception, competition from other animated releases throughout 2026-2027, and evolving Academy voting patterns. Trading volume on the Hoppers contract remains light at $1 over 24 hours, indicating limited recent conviction changes despite the high price point.

### Key factors

- Film's theatrical release date and audience reception metrics determine baseline eligibility and competitive positioning
- Number and quality of competing animated features released in the 2026-2027 eligibility window directly affects nomination likelihood
- Academy's recent voting trends show animation category typically receives 5-10 nominations, affecting threshold for inclusion
- Current 81% price implies material probability (~19%) of non-nomination despite market leader status, reflecting genuine uncertainty
- Thin 24-hour trading volume ($1) suggests price may not reflect recent market consensus if significant new information emerged

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomsbanimatedf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomsbanimatedf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.