# 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations

> The Odyssey leads at 79%, runner-up 74% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomscore
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.206Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: The Odyssey at 79%
- Runner-up: Disclosure Day at 74%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $362

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 79¢ | −2pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-ody |
| Disclosure Day | 74¢ | +5pp | $338 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-d-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-dis |
| The Black Ball | 62¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-bla |
| Dune: Part Three | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-d-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-dun |
| Project Hail Mary | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-p-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-pro |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 40¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-adv |
| Wild Horse Nine | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-w-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-wil |
| The Social Reckoning | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-soc |
| The Drama | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-kri |
| Whalefall | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-w-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-wha |
| The Mandalorian and Grogu | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-t-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-mad |
| Cry to Heaven | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-music-original-score-oscar-nominations-c-kalshi-kxoscarnomscore-27-cry |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Odyssey | Disclosure Day | The Black Ball |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 56 |
| 2026-06-04 | 76 | — | 57 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | 73 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 65 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 78 | 66 | 58 |
| 2026-06-19 | 81 | 66 | 59 |
| 2026-06-21 | 84 | — | 62 |
| 2026-06-25 | 80 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 74 | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Dune: Part Three −6pp 57→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Disclosure Day +5pp 69→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · The Adventures of Cliff Booth +5pp 35→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · The Mandalorian and Grogu +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Disclosure Day +3pp 66→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 85% probability reflects market confidence that at least one specific score will receive a Best Original Score Oscar nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. This elevated level suggests the nominated film(s) have strong industry momentum and critical recognition heading into awards season. The probability would likely shift based on critical reception of competing scores between now and Oscar voting, as well as how scores perform in preliminary awards like the Golden Globes and BAFTA. The Academy's nomination announcement, scheduled for January 2027, represents the key resolution point. Until then, market participants are weighing festival circuit performance, industry screeners, and emerging consensus about which composers merit recognition this year.

### Key factors

- At least one specified score receives an Oscar nomination when the Academy announces nominees in January 2027
- Kalshi contracts show significant volume concentration in Best Actor outcomes (not music scores), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially less efficient pricing in score-specific markets
- The 85% leader price indicates asymmetric conviction compared to the 76% runner-up, suggesting meaningful differentiation between competing score outcomes
- Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and other winter 2026-2027 award ceremonies will establish momentum for which scores resonate with voters
- The gap between 85% and lower-priced alternatives suggests market participants have identified specific score(s) as substantially more likely than others, rather than uniform probability distribution across outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomscore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomscore

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.