# 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations

> Wild Horse Nine leads at 77%, runner-up 69% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomsplay
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.022Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Wild Horse Nine at 77%
- Runner-up: Digger at 69%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Horse Nine | 77¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-wi-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-wil |
| Digger | 69¢ | +15pp | $283 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-di-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-dig |
| Fjord | 68¢ | +2pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-fj-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-fjo |
| Obsession | 56¢ | +4pp | $382 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-ob-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-obs |
| Club Kid | 22¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-cl-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-clu |
| The Drama | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-th-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-dra |
| Fatherland | 16¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-fa-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-fat |
| Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | 12¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-te-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-tee |
| Josephine | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-jo-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-jos |
| The Invite | 9¢ | +5pp | $726 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-th-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-inv |
| Forgotten Island | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-fo-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-for |
| A Place in Hell | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-a-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-apl |
| The Black Ball | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2027-best-original-screenplay-oscar-nominations-th-kalshi-kxoscarnomsplay-27-bla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Wild Horse Nine | Digger | Fjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 52 | 57 | 64 |
| 2026-06-29 | 55 | 56 | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 55 | 56 | 63 |
| 2026-07-04 | 63 | 58 | 65 |
| 2026-07-12 | 77 | 73 | 67 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · Digger +15pp 58→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Wild Horse Nine +14pp 63→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Club Kid −9pp 24→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma −8pp 19→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Club Kid +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the likelihood that a particular screenplay will receive an Original Screenplay nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards (the Oscars held in March 2027). The current 56% probability indicates traders view this outcome as somewhat more likely than not, though uncertainty remains. The screenplay's chances depend primarily on its critical reception, festival performance, and industry buzz as we approach the fall awards season. Major film festivals in 2026—particularly Venice, Telluride, and Toronto—serve as key signals of which films will generate the momentum needed for Oscar consideration. The Golden Globe nominations (typically announced in December 2026) often correlate with Academy voters' preferences and would represent a critical near-term catalyst for clarifying whether this screenplay maintains its current standing or faces competitive pressure from other original screenplays entering the season.

### Key factors

- Critical scores and reviews from major outlets upon release will influence perceived screenplay quality and Oscar viability
- Festival circuit performance and awards at Venice, Telluride, Toronto, or other major venues historically correlate with subsequent Oscar nominations
- Golden Globe nominations in December 2026 typically signal Academy momentum and provide early validation of screenplay strength relative to competitors
- Production and release timing relative to the Academy's eligibility window (must be theatrically released between specific dates) affects candidacy
- Competitive landscape—the number and quality of other original screenplays released during the eligibility period determines relative strength of this entry

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarnomsplay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarnomsplay

## License

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