# Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarpic
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.606Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | 12¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-project-hail-mary-win-best-picture-at-the-osc-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-pro |
| Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three | 12¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-dune-part-three-win-best-picture-at-the-oscar-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-dun |
| Digger | 7¢ | +2pp | $793 | kalshi | /markets/will-digger-win-best-picture-at-the-oscars-digger-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-dig |
| The Odyssey | 21¢ | +1pp | $728 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-odyssey-win-best-picture-at-the-oscars-th-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-ody |
| The Social Reckoning | 6¢ | +1pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-social-reckoning-win-best-picture-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-soc |
| Wild Horse Nine | 7¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-wild-horse-nine-win-best-picture-at-the-oscar-kalshi-kxoscarpic-27-wil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 17 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · The Odyssey −13pp 36→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Digger +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Wild Horse Nine +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Odyssey has a 9% implied probability of winning Best Picture at the 2029 Academy Awards, meaning prediction markets assign roughly a 1-in-11 chance the film will claim cinema's highest honor. This low probability reflects either skepticism about the film's commercial or critical performance, or confidence in competing titles. The metric would shift based on box office returns, critical reception upon release, guild award nominations (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), and industry momentum leading into the ceremony. The Academy Awards voting and ceremony, scheduled for early 2029, represents the definitive resolution point for this outcome. Market pricing suggests traders view The Social Reckoning and Dune: Part Three as stronger contenders at present, though probabilities this far from resolution remain highly speculative and subject to substantial revision as films release and accumulate accolades.

### Key factors

- Box office performance and audience reception upon the film's theatrical release will significantly influence awards momentum and industry perception
- Critical reviews and Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores typically correlate with Academy voting patterns and influence nomination chances
- Wins or nominations from major precursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA, Critics' Choice) would substantially increase The Odyssey's odds if achieved
- Competition from other contenders like The Social Reckoning, Dune: Part Three, and Digger may consolidate industry support away from The Odyssey if those films gain early traction
- The film's genre, runtime, and thematic content relative to recent Best Picture winners should factor into assessments of Academy voter alignment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarpic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarpic

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.