# Will The Odyssey win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 5 contracts — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarscore
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.852Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $68

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 49¢ | −7pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-odyssey-win-best-music-original-score-at-kalshi-kxoscarscore-27-ody |
| Project Hail Mary | 5¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-project-hail-mary-win-best-music-original-sco-kalshi-kxoscarscore-27-pro |
| The Black Ball | 12¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-black-ball-win-best-music-original-score-kalshi-kxoscarscore-27-bla |
| Disclosure Day | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-disclosure-day-win-best-music-original-score-kalshi-kxoscarscore-27-dis |
| Part Three win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three | 14¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dune-part-three-win-best-music-original-score-kalshi-kxoscarscore-27-dun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 39 |
| 2026-08-06 | 38 |
| 2026-08-07 | 29 |
| 2026-08-08 | 21 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Disclosure Day −20pp 27→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Part Three win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three +12pp 15→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · The Odyssey −7pp 58→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · The Black Ball +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · The Odyssey −3pp 62→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the estimated chance that The Odyssey will win the Academy Award for Best Original Score at the next Oscars ceremony. The 27% probability suggests the film is a mid-tier contender but faces significant competition from other nominated films. The score's critical reception and industry momentum heading into awards season will be primary drivers—strong reviews and guild awards (like from the Golden Globes or BAFTAs) could increase this probability, while poor reception would lower it. The key catalyst occurs when the full slate of nominees is announced, typically in late January, which will clarify The Odyssey's competitive position relative to other contenders. Until then, the estimate reflects general anticipation based on the film's production profile and composer reputation rather than concrete performance data.

### Key factors

- The Odyssey's composer identity and their historical Academy track record in the Original Score category
- Critical and audience reception of The Odyssey's score relative to competing films in the same release window
- Guild award results from precursor ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTA, ASCAP Awards) that typically correlate with Oscar outcomes
- The relative strength and recognition of other scores competing in the 2027 Oscars Best Original Score race
- Official nomination announcement date (typically late January 2027) which converts current speculation into confirmed competition data

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarscore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarscore

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.