# Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 14 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarsupacto
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.925Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $437

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Pattinson | 6¢ | −1pp | $308 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-pattinson-win-best-supporting-actor-at-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-rob |
| Paul Giamatti | 5¢ | +1pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-paul-giamatti-win-best-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-pau |
| Jeremy Strong | 21¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremy-strong-win-best-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-jer |
| Channing Tatum | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-channing-tatum-win-best-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-cha |
| Charles Melton | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charles-melton-win-best-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-char |
| Colman Domingo | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colman-domingo-win-best-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-col |
| Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott) | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacques-berman-webster-ii-travis-scott-win-be-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-jac |
| Jesse Plemons | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jesse-plemons-win-best-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-jes |
| John Goodman | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-goodman-win-best-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-joh |
| Michael Fassbender | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-fassbender-win-best-supporting-actor-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-mic |
| Robert De Niro | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-de-niro-win-best-supporting-actor-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-robe |
| Sam Rockwell | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-rockwell-win-best-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-sam |
| Steve Buscemi | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-buscemi-win-best-supporting-actor-at-th-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-ste |
| Tom Holland | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-holland-win-best-supporting-actor-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarsupacto-27-tom |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 17 |
| 2026-06-24 | 9 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Jeremy Strong +4pp 22→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that John Goodman will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at the next Oscars ceremony. At 5%, it places him among the longer-shot candidates in a competitive category. The current low probability likely reflects that Goodman has limited recent high-profile film releases in awards-eligible genres, and the Supporting Actor field typically features performers with more prominent roles in major studio productions or prestige projects. The probability will shift based on films released during the eligibility window and their performance at earlier award ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild Awards), which typically serve as indicators of Academy voting patterns. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony in early 2027, after voting closes in late February.

### Key factors

- Goodman's recent filmography and whether any upcoming releases position him as a supporting actor contender in high-profile productions
- The performance of other competing actors and films at earlier award ceremonies like the Golden Globes and SAG Awards
- Number and quality of films released during the Academy eligibility window that feature Goodman in supporting roles
- Historical voting patterns in the Supporting Actor category and how Goodman's typical casting choices compare to recent winners
- Media and industry commentary on the strength of the overall 2026-2027 supporting actor field

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarsupacto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarsupacto

## License

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