# Will Margaret Qualley win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 10 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarsupactr
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.155Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inde Navarrette | 13¢ | −2pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-inde-navarrette-win-best-supporting-actress-a-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-ind |
| Anne Hathaway | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anne-hathaway-win-best-supporting-actress-at-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-ann |
| Danielle Deadwyler | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-danielle-deadwyler-win-best-supporting-actres-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-dan |
| Gemma Chan | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gemma-chan-win-best-supporting-actress-at-the-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-gem |
| Margaret Qualley | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-margaret-qualley-win-best-supporting-actress-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-mar |
| Mariana di Girolamo | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mariana-di-girolamo-win-best-supporting-actre-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-mari |
| Parker Posey | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-parker-posey-win-best-supporting-actress-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-par |
| Penélope Cruz | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penlope-cruz-win-best-supporting-actress-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-pen |
| Sandra Hüller | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sandra-hller-win-best-supporting-actress-at-t-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-san |
| Tie | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-best-supporting-actress-at-the-oscars-kalshi-kxoscarsupactr-27-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 |
| 2026-06-18 | 11 |
| 2026-06-24 | 8 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Inde Navarrette −6pp 22→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Margaret Qualley will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. At 5%, traders view her as a long-shot candidate rather than a frontrunner. The probability reflects limited recognition for her work compared to peers like Gemma Chan (10%) and Sandra Hüller (10%), suggesting her recent film roles haven't generated the same awards momentum. Qualley's chances would increase with major festival recognition (Venice, BAFTA, Golden Globe nominations) or if her upcoming projects receive critical acclaim. The key uncertainty will resolve through the standard Oscar nomination and voting process, with the nomination announcement in January 2027 serving as the critical juncture that either validates her candidacy or confirms her outsider status relative to the broader field of competing actresses.

### Key factors

- Margaret Qualley's current 5% probability is half that of top competitors Gemma Chan and Sandra Hüller, indicating market consensus views her as less likely to receive an Oscar nomination
- Trading volume on Qualley contracts ($16 in 24h volume) is significantly lower than leading candidates like Gemma Chan ($1,018), suggesting limited trader conviction or interest in her chances
- Oscar nominations in January 2027 will be the primary catalyst that either elevates or confirms her long-shot status, as industry voting patterns strongly correlate with earlier festival and guild awards
- Qualley's path to nomination depends on her 2026 film releases receiving critical acclaim and translating into recognition from BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guild award voters
- The Best Supporting Actress category is highly competitive with numerous viable candidates at similar or higher probabilities, reducing any single candidate's statistical likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/oscarsupactr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=oscarsupactr

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