# Will AfD win the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/osnabruckmayor
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:48.997Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-13

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $421

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 27¢ | +8pp | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-spd-win-the-2026-osnabrck-mayoral-election-sp-kalshi-kxosnabruckmayor-26sep13-spd |
| CDU | 56¢ | +8pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-win-the-2026-osnabrck-mayoral-election-cd-kalshi-kxosnabruckmayor-26sep13-cdu |
| Greens | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greens-win-the-2026-osnabrck-mayoral-election-kalshi-kxosnabruckmayor-26sep13-gre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | 29 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · SPD +8pp 18→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · CDU +8pp 50→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Greens −3pp 5→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The AfD's 24% probability reflects market expectations for their performance in Osnabrück's 2026 mayoral election. This contrasts sharply with the CDU at 55% and SPD at 32%, suggesting the market views the AfD as a significant but not dominant contender. The AfD's position reflects broader German political dynamics, including their recent electoral gains in regional races, but faces headwinds from traditional mainstream-party dominance in mayoral contests and likely opposition coalitions. The election itself will serve as the definitive outcome moment, though candidate announcements, campaign positioning, and any local issues specific to Osnabrück could shift probabilities beforehand. Current trading volume is relatively modest, suggesting limited market participation on this specific race.

### Key factors

- CDU contract trades at 55¢ (55% implied probability), nearly 2.3x the AfD's 3¢, indicating market consensus that mainstream candidates remain favored in mayoral contests
- SPD and Greens combined represent 35% probability, suggesting anti-AfD coalition possibilities that could further fragment AfD vote share
- AfD's 24% probability reflects party's national polling strength but faces structural disadvantage in mayoral elections where local governance experience typically outweighs party affiliation
- Trading volume on AfD contract ($17 24h vol) exceeds all other contracts combined, indicating concentrated speculative interest despite low absolute probability
- No announced candidate from AfD has been reported in available information, creating uncertainty about campaign viability and local appeal in Osnabrück

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/osnabruckmayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=osnabruckmayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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