# Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

> Mark Sutcliffe leads at 63%, runner-up 20% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.124Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-26

## Headline

- Leader: Mark Sutcliffe at 63%
- Runner-up: Jeff Leiper at 20%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sutcliffe | 63¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner-mark-sutcliffe-polymarket-0xc4aaf626324e7fb7c855e5190336de1ecae44fcb77a3e13a962cff0420478827 |
| Jeff Leiper | 20¢ | −1pp | $85 | polymarket | /markets/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner-jeff-leiper-polymarket-0xeb67de02decd706560286fd69c9f133f2f016f7fbe35571bde4a116053418db5 |
| Alex Lawson | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner-alex-lawson-polymarket-0x7fe9902db2894b487f8a282064bb41a24973b0e2c84a01a9125e7027cf5ae507 |
| Catherine McKenney | 3¢ | −2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner-catherine-mckenney-polymarket-0xcd0cf3f5c7a33e4778f1f85407f6daf9e6bc6a54b1b25ee6e8f7d2a3e927f03b |
| Neil Saravanamuttoo | 3¢ | −26pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner-neil-saravanamuttoo-polymarket-0x76f5892d4357a7e75c893c98b6739185f1f1d209b699bc67c25fc0c33ee49578 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mark Sutcliffe | Jeff Leiper | Alex Lawson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-04-28 | 60 | 34 | 29 |
| 2026-04-29 | 65 | 20 | 5 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | 19 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 3 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Neil Saravanamuttoo −26pp 33→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Catherine McKenney +22pp 3→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Catherine McKenney −19pp 25→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 63% probability indicates that market participants assess one candidate as substantially more likely to win Ottawa's mayoral election than alternatives, though meaningful uncertainty remains. This level typically reflects a combination of polling data, historical performance, endorsement patterns, and candidate visibility. Movement in the probability would depend on campaign developments such as debates, new polling releases, or shifts in voter sentiment tracked through subsequent market activity. The primary resolution driver will be the actual mayoral election outcome, with any scheduled debates or major campaign events in the interim serving as information points that could shift expectations. Market participants are pricing this as a competitive but directional race rather than a toss-up.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate holds a 44-point margin over the runner-up (63% vs 19%), suggesting differentiation in market pricing rather than statistical uncertainty alone
- Trading volume and contract activity can indicate confidence levels—higher sustained volume would suggest conviction while declining activity may signal growing doubt
- Any major polling releases or campaign announcements would provide new information for price discovery, potentially widening or narrowing the current gap
- The current distribution across four contracts shows concentration rather than fragmentation, indicating market consensus around one outcome's likelihood relative to others
- Actual election date and any preliminary results or vote counts would provide concrete resolution data independent of prior probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ottawa-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ottawa-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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