# Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 4 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ottawamayor
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.703Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-26

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $117

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Leiper | 13¢ | +2pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-leiper-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxottawamayor-26oct26-jlei |
| Alex Lawson | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-lawson-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxottawamayor-26oct26-alaw |
| Mark Sutcliffe | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-sutcliffe-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayoral-el-kalshi-kxottawamayor-26oct26-msut |
| Neil Saravanamuttoo | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-neil-saravanamuttoo-win-the-2026-ottawa-mayor-kalshi-kxottawamayor-26oct26-nsar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | 27 |
| 2026-08-09 | 22 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Jeff Leiper −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Mark Sutcliffe +3pp 53→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Neil Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability reflects prediction market expectations for his performance in the 2026 Ottawa mayoral race. This places him as a distant third-place candidate behind incumbent Mark Sutcliffe (52%) and city councillor Jeff Leiper (17%), with low trading volume suggesting limited market confidence in either direction. The probability reflects Saravanamuttoo's current name recognition, campaign infrastructure, and fundraising position relative to frontrunners. Key uncertainties include whether Sutcliffe faces unexpected scandals or dissatisfaction that could fragment the incumbent vote, or whether Saravanamuttoo can build sufficient campaign momentum and media presence to establish himself as a credible alternative. The race resolution date in October 2026 will depend heavily on campaign performance between now and election day, voter turnout patterns, and any major local issues that emerge.

### Key factors

- Sutcliffe holds a 30-percentage-point lead, indicating markets view him as the dominant candidate with structural advantages as incumbent
- Saravanamuttoo's 22% probability is roughly double Leiper's 17%, suggesting markets differentiate between second-tier candidates based on available information
- Trading volume of $400 in 24 hours on the Saravanamuttoo contract is relatively modest, indicating limited speculative interest or uncertainty among sophisticated traders
- The combined probability of non-Sutcliffe candidates (48%) suggests reasonable market uncertainty about whether the incumbent can win outright
- Campaign activity, endorsements, and media coverage between July 2026 and the October election will likely shift these probabilities significantly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ottawamayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ottawamayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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