# Will Justin Rose be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Jun 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/owgrrank
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.089Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $85

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 71¢ | −19pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-fitzpatrick-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offi-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-mfit |
| Justin Rose | 52¢ | −38pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-rose-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-jros |
| J.J. Spaun | 52¢ | −33pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-jj-spaun-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-wor-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-jspa |
| Chris Gotterup | 52¢ | −33pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-gotterup-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offici-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-cgot |
| Collin Morikawa | 51¢ | −38pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-collin-morikawa-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offic-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-cmor |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 51¢ | −37pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-tommy-fleetwood-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offic-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-tfle |
| Xander Schauffele | 51¢ | −31pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-xander-schauffele-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-off-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-xsch |
| Robert MacIntyre | 40¢ | −41pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-macintyre-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offi-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-rmac |
| Sepp Straka | 51¢ | −26pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-sepp-straka-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-sstr |
| Ludvig Aberg | 26¢ | −39pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-ludvig-aberg-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-labe |
| Ben Griffin | 36¢ | −39pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-griffin-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-bgri |
| Scottie Scheffler | 52¢ | −41pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-be-ranked-top-10-on-the-off-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt10-ssch |
| Rory McIlroy | 51¢ | −42pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-be-ranked-top-10-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt10-rmci |
| Scottie Scheffler | 81¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-off-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-ssch |
| Rory McIlroy | 81¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-official-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-rmci |
| Cameron Young | 81¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-officia-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-cyou |
| Russell Henley | 51¢ | −37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-russell-henley-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offici-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-rhen |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 10¢ | −49pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hideki-matsuyama-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offi-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-hmat |
| Justin Thomas | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-thomas-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-officia-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-jtho |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 10¢ | −34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-bridgeman-be-ranked-top-20-on-the-offic-kalshi-kxowgrrank-26junt20-jbri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 95 |
| 2026-05-03 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 18 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Scottie Scheffler +90pp 4→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Rory McIlroy +90pp 4→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Justin Rose +86pp 3→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Collin Morikawa +86pp 3→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Rory McIlroy +86pp 3→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability asks whether Justin Rose will achieve a top-10 ranking on the Official World Golf Ranking by June 1, 2026. At 20%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but plausible. Rose's ranking trajectory depends on his performance in the remaining major tournaments and regular tour events before the deadline. The low probability reflects his recent results—related markets show minimal confidence in his near-term competitive success, with markets on his specific tournament finishes trading substantially lower. The Cadillac Championship and other spring events represent concrete near-term tests of his form. Rose would need consistent top-tier performances over the next month to move significantly into contention for a top-10 ranking, which historically requires sustained excellence across multiple events.

### Key factors

- Justin Rose's current Official World Golf Ranking position as of late April 2026 and points gap to the top 10
- His performance in the Cadillac Championship and other scheduled PGA Tour events before June 1
- Whether he secures top-10 finishes in upcoming tournaments, as related markets price his head-to-head and tournament outcome odds substantially lower
- The typical point degradation rate for players outside the top 10 and how many events Rose would need to win or place in
- Recent form trends—whether Rose is demonstrating improving consistency or continued inconsistency compared to the prior 12 months

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/owgrrank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=owgrrank

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