# PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

> Sharif Street leads at 60%, runner-up 39% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pa03-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.527Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Sharif Street at 60%
- Runner-up: Chris Rabb at 39%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $162

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharif Street | 60¢ | ±0 | $12 | polymarket | /markets/pa-03-democratic-primary-winner-sharif-street-polymarket-0xb8a3ea065baae7536ca832160dd9851a06645b7de509eedec34be15c9e18d850 |
| Chris Rabb | 39¢ | ±0 | $67 | polymarket | /markets/pa-03-democratic-primary-winner-chris-rabb-polymarket-0xdf9c6d4030bc0b96634a279fddfdbd8316ed42d217118f9e46205ac182ae925c |
| Ala Stanford | 3¢ | +1pp | $83 | polymarket | /markets/pa-03-democratic-primary-winner-ala-stanford-polymarket-0x331e16ffd77fadb2e80aaf59a18e497faac433311e387f0abcc3c7fb1f170069 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sharif Street | Chris Rabb | Ala Stanford |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 45 | — | 23 |
| 2026-04-10 | 43 | 29 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 38 | 42 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 57 | 6 |
| 2026-05-09 | 60 | 39 | 4 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Sharif Street +14pp 43→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Chris Rabb −13pp 50→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Chris Rabb −7pp 57→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Ala Stanford −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sharif Street +5pp 38→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 49% probability for Chris Rabb indicates market participants view him as the narrow frontrunner but with substantial uncertainty in Pennsylvania's 3rd District Democratic primary. This outcome-dependent market reflects competing support among multiple viable candidates, with Sharif Street at 42% representing the closest challenger. The primary outcome will depend on voter turnout patterns, endorsement consolidation, and whether any candidate can build a decisive coalition before election day. The resolution hinges on actual primary results, which will definitively determine the Democratic nominee for this Philadelphia-area seat.

### Key factors

- Chris Rabb's current polling position relative to Sharif Street and other declared candidates
- Endorsement patterns from party establishment figures and organized labor in the district
- Voter turnout composition, particularly across different neighborhood and demographic segments
- Campaign spending and field organization capacity compared among top contenders
- Any candidate withdrawals or consolidation that could shift vote concentration before primary day

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/pa03-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=pa03-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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