# Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026

> At least 180 leads at 85%, runner-up 78% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/padatacenters
Updated: 2026-08-24T05:20:51.233Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: At least 180 at 85%
- Runner-up: At least 185 at 78%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 180 | 85¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-180-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t180 |
| At least 185 | 78¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-185-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t185 |
| At least 190 | 68¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-190-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t190 |
| At least 195 | 59¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-195-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t195 |
| At least 200 | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-200-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t200 |
| At least 205 | 31¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pennsylvania-have-at-least-205-data-centers-l-kalshi-kxpadatacenters-26dec31-t205 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 180 | At least 185 | At least 190 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 41 | 39 | 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 60 | 68 | 62 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | 67 | 62 |
| 2026-08-22 | 80 | 73 | 64 |
| 2026-08-23 | 83 | 78 | 66 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · At least 180 +52pp 41→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · At least 180 −33pp 93→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · At least 185 +29pp 39→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · At least 190 +26pp 36→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · At least 180 +20pp 60→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This predicts whether Pennsylvania will have at least 190 data centers registered or operational by year-end 2026. The 92% probability on the 180+ threshold and 83% on the 190+ threshold suggests traders expect strong growth in the state's data center capacity. The gap between these probabilities indicates modest uncertainty about reaching exactly 190 rather than whether significant expansion occurs. Growth drivers include regional demand for cloud infrastructure, favorable electricity pricing, and existing facility expansions; headwinds include construction timelines, permit delays, and shifting location preferences. Resolution depends on official counts from industry databases and state business records, likely finalized in early 2027.

### Key factors

- Current baseline: Pennsylvania's approximate 2024-2025 data center count and announced projects in active development or pre-construction phases
- Construction pipeline: Number of facilities with completed permitting, under construction, or with signed leases targeting 2026 completion
- Regional competition: Capacity growth in neighboring states (New York, Virginia) affecting investment flows and builder decisions
- Electricity and grid availability: Constraints or expansions in supply that directly enable or delay facility deployment
- Definitional variance: Whether count includes co-location centers, edge nodes, and backup facilities—different sources may report different totals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/padatacenters
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=padatacenters

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.